Don't bother with the "Blame Game".

For those of you looking to play the 2007 "Blame Game", you are going to have a really hard time trying to nail down one area of concern or one or two individuals. The reason for that is due to the fact that the Red Sox are actually a really good team. A 70-47 record on the morning of 8/13/07 bears that out.

Throughout the threads many individuals have tried to pinpoint the problem. However, the usual suspects have been proven wrong due to statistical evidence that strongly suggests otherwise. For example many people try and point to the bats. But as the stats show, despite a handfull of players performing below standards the team has hit the ball well enough and scored enough runs to have them ranked amound the better hitting teams in the league. And despite a few misteps by starting & relief pitchers in the last few weeks the staff has performed well above expectations. And even with Francona you are looking at a body of work that suggests he's putting the team in position to win more often than not. These are professionals and they are expected to perform in all situations and not rely on being babied by their manager.

But obviously there has to be a problem somewhere.

After pouring over some less traditional numbers I think the Red Sox problem is fairly obvious. This team doesn't have the same late inning magic we witnessed during the period from 2003 thru 2005 in which the Red Sox earned three straigh post-season trips.

Heading into tonight's game the Red Sox are 8-41 in games they trail after six innings. Going further they are 6-42 trailing after seven and 1-41 when trailing after eight. Overall, the Red Sox have had 28 come-from-behind wins, but the majority of those are games in which they trailed prior to the completion of the sixth inning. Making matters worse in this discussion is the fact that the Red Sox have scored more runs in the eighth inning (91) than they have in any other inning. Had the Red Sox found a way to come up with a few big hits late in games to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat they could have been getting ready to walk away with the crown. By contrast they are 65-2 with a lead after six innings, 63-2 after seven and 67-1 after eight. But that suggests the pitching, mainly the pen, has been greatly successful and backs up their stats. In short, the Red Sox are lacking the late inning magic at the plate that propelled them to success in that three year period previously discussed.

However, that gets confusing also when trying to nail down who isn't performing. The first suspect is Ortiz. He's been the late inning glory guy for this team for years. Yet, we all know in that three year period it seemed like new guys got big hits almost everytime they came from behind late in games. It wasn't just Ortiz getting all the big hits. So, it's all but impossible to place the blame on any one individual this year.

To me that's the problem. Statistically they are a very good hitting team. They are not hitting a lot of HR's, but their run production has been very solid. However, they need to find a way to reclaim that late inning magic. They need a couple of come-from-behind wins after the sixth inning to get them moving ahead in the right direction. Basically, that;'s what good teams do, they find a way to win games late. And they usually do that with some big hits at the plate. If the Red Sox can start doing that... It will go a long way into helping them into the post-season. Otherwise the Red Sox will have done something none of us had previously thought possible. They will have wasted a season in which they received the pitching they needed.

The only real lack is in HR punch and BA/RISP which agree exactly with what you're saying, PA. The Sox are hitting well but not at the most opportune time. In other words, it's a bunch of bad freakin' luck.

certainly yestday was a case of bad luck as we got solid wood a number of times only to result in outs ..

I agree with PAs analysis mostly because I believe magic is a real element of athletic achievement
... the second thing that may explain a little is we've got an older team and we've got no 'bennies'
.. a third thing is the players are aware of what's going on and now are pressing later in the game; a little tension, or trying to do too much makes a big difference in an at bat against a major league pitcher

BA w/RISP is actually a pretty decent .274 clip. OPS w/RISP is a healthy .818. Opponents by contrast are at .236 avg, .689 OPS w/RISP.

"Close and Late" is also a respectable .259 avg/.720 OPS as compared to .184/.547 for opponents.

I think what we're seeing is that the Sox pen (prior to this weekend ) has been absolutely amazing at shutting teams down when protecting late leads. The Sox for their part have generally struggled against premier pitching. ie Closers, top setup men and Aces of staff.

This could be bad luck or could be a big problem come October.

certainly yestday was a case of bad luck as we got solid wood a number of times only to result in outs ..

I agree with PAs analysis mostly because I believe magic is a real element of athletic achievement
... the second thing that may explain a little is we've got an older team and we've got no 'bennies'
.. a third thing is the players are aware of what's going on and now are pressing later in the game; a little tension, or trying to do too much makes a big difference in an at bat against a major league pitcher

red sox advisor bill james does not believe in the clutch thing

certainly yestday was a case of bad luck as we got solid wood a number of times only to result in outs ..

I agree with PAs analysis mostly because I believe magic is a real element of athletic achievement
... the second thing that may explain a little is we've got an older team and we've got no 'bennies'
.. a third thing is the players are aware of what's going on and now are pressing later in the game; a little tension, or trying to do too much makes a big difference in an at bat against a major league pitcher

red sox advisor bill james does not believe in the clutch thing

at least your keeping your sense of humour .. personally I don't have a very high opinion of some of Bill's data (I think Range Factor is a joke) but there has been a high degree of correlation to runs scored with regards to some of the offensive data that Bill was a pioneer in developing

certainly yestday was a case of bad luck as we got solid wood a number of times only to result in outs ..

I agree with PAs analysis mostly because I believe magic is a real element of athletic achievement
... the second thing that may explain a little is we've got an older team and we've got no 'bennies'
.. a third thing is the players are aware of what's going on and now are pressing later in the game; a little tension, or trying to do too much makes a big difference in an at bat against a major league pitcher

red sox advisor bill james does not believe in the clutch thing

at least your keeping your sense of humour .. personally I don't have a very high opinion of some of Bill's data (I think Range Factor is a joke) but there has been a high degree of correlation to runs scored with regards to some of the offensive data that Bill was a pioneer in developing

But the thing is, how many championships has Bill James won?

It is a good way to build a solid team, but winning it all is a different story.

But the real thing is, and I do not even know how to describe this, but there is something about this team
that is somewhere between annoying and not overly loveable. For example, Drew in the outfield on Friday night. I just do not like players like that. Manny and trying to steal third base yesterday - not really funny at this point. Francona and some of his decisions that appear to say "I am not really sure of this line up or this bull pen." Coco Crisp taking last Wednesday when he had Thursday off anyway - just seemed more "me" than "team." My two cents for whatever they are worth.

I think that I would be alright if things did not end up into the playoffs or to the WS. It is just that it feels like a dagger in the heart if the Yanks get the division.

For the last few days.......I don't have a problem playing the "blame game"...... to me it comes down to one name ........ Eric Gagme.......oh and maybe another...... Theo Epstein!!

I don't think it's bad luck.....I think it was a bad acquisition!! I just don't get it ......how do you ruin one of baseball's best setup and closer roles by signing Gagne?? If it ain't broke......don't fix it!!!!!!!!!

For the last few days.......I don't have a problem playing the "blame game"...... to me it comes down to one name ........ Eric Gagme.......oh and maybe another...... Theo Epstein!!

I don't think it's bad luck.....I think it was a bad acquisition!! I just don't get it ......how do you ruin one of baseball's best setup and closer roles by signing Gagne?? If it ain't broke......don't fix it!!!!!!!!!

I was a big proponent of adding depth to the pen. Still like the idea, but I'm kind of like Trot in that I'm really standoffish about picking up bullpen arms in trades.

I'm wondering...what about the waivers? DFA? I look at those this way:

1). He was having a great year closing for the Rangers. He's always been a closer. This role shift seems to have fucked with his mojo. I say give him 1, maybe 2 low leverage appearance opportunities (HOPEFULLY that opportunity will present itself this upcomiong series), if he gets it together give him another high leverage shot,. If he screws the pooch he's useless.

2). Putting him on waivers or a DFA creates a trade scenario, and one in which his chances of going to a potential post season opponent are very, VERY slim. He's not staying after this year anyway, if he's not going to be able to get the job done that he was brought here to do why keep him, especially with Timlin healthy and throwing great (had a GREAT appearance yesterday), and MDC gaining confidence every time out (also had a GREAT appearance yesterday).

I don't know, what do you guys think?

Alright, but Pete addressed the Gagne situation pretty effectively the other day.

The acquisition was a solid one. He was the best BP arm on the market, and we got him (and kept him away from NYY, Detroit and Cleveland, who could all have used him). The pundits did say that we had the division sewn up when we got him.

The fact that his performance in a Sox uniform so far has been inexplicably horrible, is not something that you can legitimately blame Theo for.