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Pages: (2) [1] 2  ( Go to first unread post )

 Ninety-freakin'-seven!, GO PAPS!
George
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM


Unregistered









Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!
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macs3rd
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 08:56 AM


Southie Fangirl


Group: Members
Posts: 31,795
Member No.: 4
Joined: 12-December 06



Papelbon may not have won the game last night, or recorded a save or even a close. Should we say he pulled that inning out ? Good work by Tito bringing him in when he did, and even though it scared the hell out of me, taking him out when he did.


--------------------
As I grew up, I knew that as a building (Fenway Park) was on the level of Mount Olympus, the Pyramid at Giza, the nation's capitol, the czar's Winter Palace, and the Louvre — except, of course, that is better than all those inconsequential places”
― Bart Giamatti
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George
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 08:59 AM


Unregistered









Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.

He made Vladimir-freakin'-Guerrero look like a minor leaguer!

Incidentally, I hope Paps uses his starter-fastball sometimes. If he can get his gas up to 97, a fastball at 91 or 92 counts as offspeed.
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Offbase
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 09:16 AM


Living Free in the Granite State


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Posts: 32,214
Member No.: 2
Joined: 9-December 06



QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 09:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.

He made Vladimir-freakin'-Guerrero look like a minor leaguer!

Incidentally, I hope Paps uses his starter-fastball sometimes. If he can get his gas up to 97, a fastball at 91 or 92 counts as offspeed.

George,
I remember him hitting 96 - 97 a few times last year. He just couldn't do it on back to back days or much at all as the season wore on. If he loses a little as the months go by, it will take him more pitches to do his job, but he'll still get the outs he has to get.

OTOH, if his new conditioning program and more careful use mean he can dial it up more often ... look out AL batters. biggrin.gif


--------------------
The young Bill James rather famously wrote that he could not find any evidence that certain types of players could consistently hit better in the clutch – he still has not found that evidence. But unlike his younger self, he will not dismiss the idea of clutch hitting. He has been a consultant for the Red Sox for more than a decade, and he has watched David Ortiz deliver so many big hits in so many big moments, and he finds himself unwilling to deny that Big Papi does have an ability in those situations others don’t have.
Joe Posnanski
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mettle
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 12:34 PM





Group: Members
Posts: 743
Member No.: 210
Joined: 10-April 07



QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

EDITED: Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year and Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s or the guns are a little off.


--------------------
"I dreamt about this day. I said my prayers every night to the big guy: 'Bring us a World Series." - Johnny Pesky
"Fenway is the essence of baseball." - Tom Seaver
"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." Ichiro, on Daisuke.
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Offbase
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 12:59 PM


Living Free in the Granite State


Group: Admin
Posts: 32,214
Member No.: 2
Joined: 9-December 06



QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 01:34 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year, or Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s.

Good question!
Who manages the gus? Checks their accuracy? Can the home team use one for their pitcher and a slower one for the visitors, or otherwise mess with the enemy's head? Or is MLB messing with everybody?


--------------------
The young Bill James rather famously wrote that he could not find any evidence that certain types of players could consistently hit better in the clutch – he still has not found that evidence. But unlike his younger self, he will not dismiss the idea of clutch hitting. He has been a consultant for the Red Sox for more than a decade, and he has watched David Ortiz deliver so many big hits in so many big moments, and he finds himself unwilling to deny that Big Papi does have an ability in those situations others don’t have.
Joe Posnanski
Top
mettle
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 01:23 PM





Group: Members
Posts: 743
Member No.: 210
Joined: 10-April 07



QUOTE (Offbase @ Apr 14 2007, 12:59 PM)
QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 01:34 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year, or Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s.

Good question!
Who manages the gus? Checks their accuracy? Can the home team use one for their pitcher and a slower one for the visitors, or otherwise mess with the enemy's head? Or is MLB messing with everybody?

Just like the long ball, "chics" embarassed.gif dig the heater.
I think everyone's guns are jacked up a bit.

A few interesting pieces on the issue:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.j...t=.jsp&c_id=nym
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/bmoyn...tch_Ever_Thrown

This one is especially interesting:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...and-speed-guns/


--------------------
"I dreamt about this day. I said my prayers every night to the big guy: 'Bring us a World Series." - Johnny Pesky
"Fenway is the essence of baseball." - Tom Seaver
"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." Ichiro, on Daisuke.
Top
JayhawkBill
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 02:11 PM


Darth Saber


Group: Members
Posts: 2,401
Member No.: 6
Joined: 12-December 06



QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.


Jon Papelbon, 2006/2007:

ERA 0.92/0.00
FIP 2.16/-0.59
xFIP 3.31/0.12

Gotta love that negative FIP. biggrin.gif

It's a small sample size, but I'd point to the xFIP difference as the best metric in this case. YMMV.


--------------------
QUESTION: Welcome to Boston, Daisuke. Has it been a lifelong dream of yours to pitch in the major leagues?

MATSUZAKA: I don't really like the word "dream" to begin with. I think a dream is something you can have without realizing. I've always believed that I could pitch here and have held it as a goal, and acted on it. I think that because I've believed in and acted on it all along ... that's why I'm here today.
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mettle
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 02:18 PM





Group: Members
Posts: 743
Member No.: 210
Joined: 10-April 07



QUOTE (JayhawkBill @ Apr 14 2007, 02:11 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.


Jon Papelbon, 2006/2007:

ERA 0.92/0.00
FIP 2.16/-0.59
xFIP 3.31/0.12

Gotta love that negative FIP. biggrin.gif

It's a small sample size, but I'd point to the xFIP difference as the best metric in this case. YMMV.

Does that xFIP for '06 mean that independent of fielding, park effects and luck, that Paps' ERA "should" have been 3.31?


--------------------
"I dreamt about this day. I said my prayers every night to the big guy: 'Bring us a World Series." - Johnny Pesky
"Fenway is the essence of baseball." - Tom Seaver
"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." Ichiro, on Daisuke.
Top
JayhawkBill
Posted: Apr 14 2007, 02:56 PM


Darth Saber


Group: Members
Posts: 2,401
Member No.: 6
Joined: 12-December 06



QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 02:18 PM)
Does that xFIP for '06 mean that independent of fielding, park effects and luck, that Paps' ERA "should" have been 3.31?

xFIP models pitchers' performance on a scale equivalent to ERA, but based on three things:

1) BB rate
2) K rate
3) outfield fly ball rate (a proxy for HR rate, but less susceptible to luck in small samples)

Based on those three stats, Paps was about as good as a 3.31 ERA pitcher in 2006.

Which is more accurate? Well, for past seasons, ERA certainly describes better the pitcher's effectiveness. ERA is "real." But future ERA, IIRC, correlates more closely with previous year xFIP than with previous year ERA...suggesting, perhaps, that xFIP is a better metric of a pitcher's work, independent of defense and "luck."

***

A different way of modeling pitchers' effectiveness is to take WXRL, to convert that into VORP, and to convert that back to ERA. By that method, Jon Papelbon's 2006 probably equates to a negative ERA--he was that good when it counted. xFIP is less kind to Paps. I think that Paps was lucky in 2006--but I think that his 0.00 ERA in 2007 has nothing to do with luck. It has to do with dominance.

And, at least for this moment, a healthy shoulder... unsure.gif



--------------------
QUESTION: Welcome to Boston, Daisuke. Has it been a lifelong dream of yours to pitch in the major leagues?

MATSUZAKA: I don't really like the word "dream" to begin with. I think a dream is something you can have without realizing. I've always believed that I could pitch here and have held it as a goal, and acted on it. I think that because I've believed in and acted on it all along ... that's why I'm here today.
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