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 2012 Bullpen, Grab bag of arms
tracey
Posted: Apr 6 2012, 10:53 AM


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QUOTE (ThinMan @ Apr 6 2012, 09:27 AM)
This analysis agrees with you.

Grading Alfredo Aceves the Closer

QUOTE
Conclusion

Dismissing Aceves based on his sabermetric stats would be foolish, but also expecting him to maintain these numbers would be just as dangerous. His career ERA still stands at 2.93 and his FIP is 4.03. I think it’s safe to expect him between the two and closer to the lower value than the higher. Only MARCEL and Bill James projection systems agrees with me giving him a 3.39 or 3.46 ERA respectively. The rest including STEAMER and OLIVER expect him to become the 4.00 ERA pitcher his peripherals suggest.  I’m still leaning towards the positive projections and expect Aceves to be solid in the closer role.

wheter or not this works is irelallvant.we are wasting a pitcher with a unique skillset one that this team really needs despite the optimism,in turn we turn a rubberarmwho can spotstart and give valuble mid relief innings to a guy who now will get one inning.i think it was a bad personel decision,once again not needed.


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ThinMan
Posted: Apr 6 2012, 11:03 AM


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QUOTE (tracey @ Apr 6 2012, 11:53 AM)
wheter or not this works is irelallvant.we are wasting a pitcher with a unique skillset one that this team really needs despite the optimism,in turn we turn a rubberarmwho can spotstart and give valuble mid relief innings to a guy who now will get one inning.i think it was a bad personel decision,once again not needed.

I don't disagree. Once Bailey was out I would have named Melancon the closer and been done. But there we are.

I do think we'll see more multi-inning saves from Aceves than is typically the case.


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"I always say I'd rather see 92, 93, 91 to the glove than 105 everywhere else."—Juan Nieves
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rominer
Posted: Apr 6 2012, 02:40 PM


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There's "best use of his skill set" individually, in a vacuum. In that sense, full time closer is definitely not the best use for Alfredo Aceves.

But then there's "best use of his skill set" in the context of the team and the time period.

If Aceves is still the closer in June, then that will either mean that he's been much better than expected in the role, or that the rest of the bullpen has been much worse than expected.

For the moment, though, the team has 13 pitchers – and so, less of a need for his "3 innings today, 1 inning tomorrow" skills. Melancon and Padilla could be candidates for the closer job, but one had a shaky spring, and the other had a spring slowed by injury. Aceves is trusted from day one (and the circumstances of yesterday's game shouldn't shake that trust).

When the Sox settle in to a 12-man staff, and other pitchers (we hope) settle in to the season, I think we'll see different roles. But for now, Aceves closing does make some sense to me.


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HomeHalf
Posted: Apr 6 2012, 02:55 PM


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Mazz's latest on the bullpen ends with "And their season hangs in the balance." Honestly! Opening Day!
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rominer
Posted: Apr 6 2012, 02:59 PM


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QUOTE (HomeHalf @ Apr 6 2012, 11:55 AM)
Mazz's latest on the bullpen ends with "And their season hangs in the balance." Honestly! Opening Day!

When your new closer comes into the game with the walkoff-winning run in scoring position against a very good offense, loads the bases on a hit batter that should have been called a dead ball swinging strike, and then gives up the winning hit on what would have been an out if the HBP hadn't moved a runner to third base and forced the infield to play in for the do-or-die situation...

...that's when you know that he can't possibly succeed ever again.


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tracey
Posted: Apr 7 2012, 06:48 AM


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QUOTE (ThinMan @ Apr 6 2012, 11:03 AM)
I don't disagree. Once Bailey was out I would have named Melancon the closer and been done. But there we are.

I do think we'll see more multi-inning saves from Aceves than is typically the case.

i think what turnrd into an overhaul may prove very difficult to deal with offseason,people in roles they arent use to orsuppose to be.


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