2012 Bullpen, Grab bag of arms

This is probably more of a spring training discussion, but we'll start it here and move it over when we get the new forum up (note to self: pitchers and catchers report this weekend)

Assuming the Sox carry 12 pitchers on their 25-man this season--and there's no reason to think they won't--that means 7 bullpen slots to be filled.

Assume further that Bailey, Melancon, and one of Bard/Aceves are locks for 3 of those slots. I know Tracey disagrees with that last point, but he's wrong.

That leaves 4 slots to be filled, from the following list: Morales, Albers, Miller, Atchison, Maine, Bowden, Ohlendorff, Wilson, Padilla?, Carlson, Doubront, Tazawa.

Note: I didn't include Hill or Jenks, as I assume both will start the season on the DL.

Personally I think Morales and Albers are the most likely candidates from that list to earn pen slots. The other two names will be determined by who has options, who doesn't, what the needs are, and what ultimately happens with the 4th/5th rotation slots. But of course I could be wrong (and often am).

Your thoughts?

Add to this that Morales, Albers, Miller, Bowden, and Doubront are the one we lose if they don’t make the roster. Of those names, Miller seems like the only likely candidate to pass through waivers without being claimed by another team.

Obviously the 4th/5th starter affects this.

I agree with the premise that the Bard-as-starter experiment stretches into the start of the season even if he struggles to adapt early on. I agree with the premise that therefore Aceves is back in the bullpen and only gets his shot at anything more than a spot start if Bard is still struggling as of mid-May or so.

I don't know those things for sure, of course. And I don't know where that leaves the roster and non-roster guys, or the mythical Roy Oswalt, in the fight for whatever rotation spot(s) are left.

Definite:
1. Bailey
2. Aceves
3. Melancon
4. Morales

Probable:
5. Doubront – Not untouchable, but out of options, and his stuff's too good to let him go unless he really earns his way off the team.

6. Albers – He's cheap, and he really was an important and effective part of the bullpen last year until about mid-August. I don't know why he faded down the stretch, but unless he shows up significantly heavier than he already was, or has a disastrous spring, there's every reason to keep him.

7. Bowden – Reasonably effective in limited MLB relief duty last year, and very solid as a full-time reliever in Pawtucket. If he had options left, I'd think there was a good chance that he doesn't make the cut. Sans options, though, I think he gets a shot.

Possible
8. Padilla – I think he's more likely to either earn the 5th starter spot, or else (more likely yet) get stashed in Pawtucket until they need him.

9. Atchison – Wish there was a spot for him, but I think he'll hang around and help the team somewhere along the line.

10. Jesse Carlson – Could pitch his way into the last spot, but just as the roster guys have an edge over non-roster guys, I think the guy who has a history of helping this team (Atchison) gets an edge over the new guy.

11. Clayton Mortensen – I'm skeptical, but who knows.


Doubtful
11. Miller – I think it's 5th starter or bust.

Very unlikely
12. Ohlendorf – He was exclusively a starter with the Pirates, but I get the sense that he's more likely to be a reliever for the Red Sox. But even more likely still to be a reliever for the PawSox.

13. Tony Pena – Intriguing. Wouldn't rule him out for later in the year. Can't see him earning a job out of the gate.

14. Cook – I do think he has some potential to help the team as a starter, but I don't think he's on the radar at all as a reliever (or as a guy who will be pitching in Boston before he establishes himself in Pawtucket for a few starts).

15. Silva – He has closer potential…for the buffet line. Another "starter or bust" guy, I think.

Nope
16. Justin Germano – Why would he make the team?

17. John Maine – Not even a spring training invite.

18. Alex Wilson – He could be this year's Kyle Weiland, which one can only hope is not nearly as bad as last year's Kyle Weiland. But like Kyle Weiland (or Michael Bowden before him), he's only going to the pen when/if he doesn't cut it as a starter. Here's hoping that he's the ace of the PawSox staff.

19. Other people. Who is Chorye Spoon? I have no idea. Maybe Doug Mathis deserves a spot ahead of Germano or Maine...but he's still a "nope."

As you lay it out it seems pretty cut and dry. The only disagreement I have (and barely one at that) is that I am optomistic about Mortenson playing some kind of role during the 2012 season. Jenks and Hill make things interesting down the road, but who gets cut if the Dubront/ Albers/ Bowden group are performing well ?

As you lay it out it seems pretty cut and dry. The only disagreement I have (and barely one at that) is that I am optomistic about Mortenson playing some kind of role during the 2012 season. Jenks and Hill make things interesting down the road, but who gets cut if the Dubront/ Albers/ Bowden group are performing well ?

And my only significant departure from this scenario as the most likely is that I'm just not a Bowden fan. He's going to have to have a spectacular spring before I'll feel anything but trepidation if he's handed a ball in any inning in a major league game.

I think it's about the lack of options more than anything else. I don't want to just throw him to the waiver wire without seeing what he can do as a big league reliever first.

I would guess that he has the least wiggle room/shortest leash of any of the guys I'm expecting to make the cut. I think he's a good candidate for one of those "our roster bubble guy for your roster bubble guy" trades, especially if any of the scrap heap guys really come on strong.

But as the roster stands today, I would want to stick with him until he earns his way out of a job. Maybe he's the righty specialist. Maybe he's in that Atchison role – a multi-inning guy in mop-up, a clean 6th inning guy otherwise. Even if he's strictly a garbage time pitcher, he should get a shot unless someone very clearly wrestles the spot away from him.

Also seem to have neglected Tazawa in that list. But I would sum him up as: Somewhere between Alex Wilson and Andrew Miller. He's either going to start in Boston or start in Pawtucket. As long as he has options, he's not under consideration for a bullpen role early in the season.

I think it's about the lack of options more than anything else. I don't want to just throw him to the waiver wire without seeing what he can do as a big league reliever first.

I would guess that he has the least wiggle room/shortest leash of any of the guys I'm expecting to make the cut. I think he's a good candidate for one of those "our roster bubble guy for your roster bubble guy" trades, especially if any of the scrap heap guys really come on strong.

But as the roster stands today, I would want to stick with him until he earns his way out of a job. Maybe he's the righty specialist. Maybe he's in that Atchison role – a multi-inning guy in mop-up, a clean 6th inning guy otherwise. Even if he's strictly a garbage time pitcher, he should get a shot unless someone very clearly wrestles the spot away from him.

Also seem to have neglected Tazawa in that list. But I would sum him up as: Somewhere between Alex Wilson and Andrew Miller. He's either going to start in Boston or start in Pawtucket. As long as he has options, he's not under consideration for a bullpen role early in the season.

I see more of an up side for Bowden. 2011 was the 1st season he was used exclusively out of the bullpen and he really did have a strong season for the PawSox. He did underwhelm in his appearences with the Sox, but I see Bowden as a guy who's performance will improve as his ML innings increase. I predict he will grow on us....

Thin:

Thanks for this thread. With no real news for forever, we needed to get into some analysis, and get away from whining about the sky falling (not naming any names . . ).

Rom: Excellent analysis. With all the recent "sky is falling" talk, I'd have thought it to be much more murky, but I agree with your assessment: the guys without options start on the MLB roster, unless 1) they really suck in ST, and 2) someone else really shines.

Wild card in all this: I wouldn't be surprised to see some last minute trades of some of these guys. Some of our bubble pitchers might find a home somewhere else for a higher upside MiLB player . . .

The harrowing tale of Bobby Jenks

My reaction when I saw that this afternoon? Holy fucking shit.

The team has some sort of relationship with Mass General, right? I hope that's past tense by tomorrow.


And I guess we have an answer to where did the rest of Bobby Jenks go? I'm rooting for him big time now.