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 Where Do We Go From Here, broad discussion on everthing.
Free Agent Blogger
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 12:55 AM


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SoxProspects top 20. My view

1. Middlebrooks, 3B. One way or another, should be our starting 3B by years end. Features plus power, plus defense. shortcomings, long swing which make him subject to strikeouts and OBP. Should have an excellent OPS but SLG% oriented. I'd project him to develop into a 260ish batter with 25-30 HRs and excellent defense, borderline future all star.

2. Ranaudo, SP. Has a #2 ceiling (in scouting terminology, #1's are rare, there are only 5 or 6 in all of baseball, ratings are logrithmic) and if he has the year expected, should be in our starting rotation for next year.

3. Bogaerts, SS. The second coming. Might be third, I've lost track. May or may not stick at shortstop depending on how he matures physically.

4. Iglesias, SS. With his glove, a .550 OPS would make him an all-star.

5. Lavarnway. Tremendous power and plate discipline for a catcher. Catching skills are the question. Scouts are all over the place on his future. His bat is for real and a year at Pawtucket might turn him into an all star caliber package.

6.Kalish, OF. Still the same, delayed as he recoups from two surgeries. We'll see him in Boston by year end.

7. Barnes. Similar general ceiling to Ranaudo but a year behind him. This will be his first full pro season.

8. Brentz, RF. If he has another year like last year, could be in Boston faster than expected. Has the highest power rating in the system and hit 30 HRs in his first pro year. Needs experience on defense, makes way too many mistakes but he spent the off season working on that. Has the tools to be an average RFer. Five years from now, he will be the perenial HR leader on the Sox, excellent power and power mechanics.

9.Jacobs, LF. Running back convert. Impressed a lot of people with his first fulltime baseball season. Has speed power and mechanics that could make him a very solid batter.

10. Swihart, C. As one moderator at SoxProspects (templeUsox) stated in " Buster Posey building kit". First pro season, high school draftee. Scouts love his bat and athleticism, has enough athleticism to play 3B.

11. Coyle, 2B. Everybody and their brother calls him the second Dustin Pedroia. He's about the same size so the comparison would be expected but everything about his game says Dustin II.

12. Cecchini, 3B. Likened to Nomar but hopefully not the personality. One of my favorites but has two consecutive years with a major injury.

13. Doubront. Sp/RP. Has the potential to be a bottom of the rotation lefty starter, a difficult commodity to find. Had a wasted 2011 due to coming to camp out of shape and had a series of minor injuries. Hopefully, that problem is behind him and he learned to be an athlete. If not, he'll just be a footnote in baseball history.

14. Wilson SP. Although successful as a starter, his stuff plays up better as a reliever. Could easily be our setup reliever by the end of the year.

15. Britton. Maybe the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our system but had a totally crap 2011 as he lost command of everything. At similar ages, was faster than fellow lefty Lester with a better breaking ball. If he gets it back together, he'll be top 3 Sox by year's end. If not, he'll find himself struggling to regain his stature. Him and Pimentel were probably the biggest disapointments of 2011.

16. Vitek, 3B. Came into the system highly regarded as a player that was close to being major league ready. Being honest, I don't think he'll make it. Other's opinions do vary and prospect followers are all over the board on their Vitek opinions so only time will tell. Personally, I don't think he will develop the defense or offense to play major league ball. On the other hand, he was our #1 pick three years ago.

17.Pimentel. Middle of the rotation ceiling but also had a crap 2011 and was demoted from AA to A. Needs to get it back together this year.

18. Bradley, CF. Past year draftee will have his first season coming. Has the tools to be an above average center fielder all around. Very popular player with a winning personality.

19. Tejeda, 2B. Had a somewhat disappointing 2011 but not significantly so, not out of the reasonable development range. May have outgrown being a second baseman and may have to move to RF or LF. This is a big boy, built similarly to Cano but isn't quite as fluid as Cano.

20. Owens, SP. College draftee, has mid rotation ceiling. Big guy (6' 7") with weight.

Others to consider. Lin. To my knowledge, one of two Sox players with a scout rated 80 tool. (His arm, Iglesias glove). Faster than Ellsbury and a significantly better fielder. Has problems making solid contact on a consistent basis so will likely have a career as a forth outfielder but has super-star tools. I'm hoping he, not McDonald, gets the call to Boston.

All the above is my opinion....


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Avatar is Stevie Ray Vaughan, snapshot from 1983 'Pride & Joy', Live at the El Mocambo. He simply died too young in a helicopter crash,there's no telling what he would have accomplished. He was a master of power guitar improvisation and rarely did anything the same way twice yet always sounded like he had always done it that way.
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Offbase
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 07:27 AM


Living Free in the Granite State


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Thanks,FAB, great review.


I don't know if you've had time to pay attention to ST so far, but if you have, I'm wondering whether anything you've seen impacts these snapshots.

In particular:

- Are you bothered by Tazawa's performance? He appears to me to need a year in the minors.

- Linares continues to look like a major league player imho. It seems to me he deserve a chance to prove me wrong, and while I know it's a business and all that, holding him down in AAA at his age is a waste. But we have DMac, Ross, Sweeney, and Lin to choose from as well. What would you do with him?


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Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be all right.
The Jamaican and The Hawaiian

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tracey
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 07:30 AM


Ray of Sunshine


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Joined: 14-December 06



QUOTE (Offbase @ Mar 12 2012, 07:27 AM)
Thanks,FAB, great review.


I don't know if you've had time to pay attention to ST so far, but if you have, I'm wondering whether anything you've seen impacts these snapshots.

In particular:

- Are you bothered by Tazawa's performance? He appears to me to need a year in the minors.

- Linares continues to look like a major league player imho. It seems to me he deserve a chance to prove me wrong, and while I know it's a business and all that, holding him down in AAA at his age is a waste. But we have DMac, Ross, Sweeney, and Lin to choose from as well. What would you do with him?

to my eye tazawaneeds more time,his pitches dont look sharp,they should move him to the minors if possible now.


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FUCK THE YANKEES
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Free Agent Blogger
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 08:45 AM


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Tazawa has options so he isn't going to make the opening day roster unless there's a catastrophe. He is in only his second year back from Tommy John so I'd give him time to stretch out the muscles before I'd make any judgements but, by the end of last year, all of his pitches had returned with the exception of his slider.

He's the type of pitcher that isn't going to blow people away with a fastball, he needs to hit his spots and keep the ball low. His M.O. is getting people out with secondary offerings. That type of pitcher may need a little more time after TJ to get his feel back. I'm not worried because he's frosting on the second half cake anyways.

Linares ceiling is a mystery to me but realistically, at 27 he damn well better look better than the 22-23 year olds he plays with. He hasn't statistically torn up anything except in short spurts so my guess is that he's a potential 4th outfielder on the Sox if there are enough injuries or, on a lower tier team. I'd like to be wrong because he's a great Cuba story but at 27 he's pretty much at his peak.

I really haven't had the time to follow the early spring training results but typically the only thing that impacts my opinion during the spring are physical reports, who's in shape, who isn't and I haven't seen much of those except a few positive comments on Doubront and Brentz. I almost never look at spring stats or results, they are indicative of exactly nothing. A million and one statistical studies pretty much confirms that. When the games don't mean anything, the stats mean squat.

ADD: I'm kind of a sucker for Linares type stories but realistically, in modern times, I can't think of a single player on any team that made his major league debut at 27 or older and had any kind of decent career. Can you ?


--------------------
Avatar is Stevie Ray Vaughan, snapshot from 1983 'Pride & Joy', Live at the El Mocambo. He simply died too young in a helicopter crash,there's no telling what he would have accomplished. He was a master of power guitar improvisation and rarely did anything the same way twice yet always sounded like he had always done it that way.
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tracey
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 08:52 AM


Ray of Sunshine


Group: Members
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Joined: 14-December 06



QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 08:45 AM)
Tazawa has options so he isn't going to make the opening day roster unless there's a catastrophe. He is in only his second year back from Tommy John so I'd give him time to stretch out the muscles before I'd make any judgements but, by the end of last year, all of his pitches had returned with the exception of his slider.

He's the type of pitcher that isn't going to blow people away with a fastball, he needs to hit his spots and keep the ball low. His M.O. is getting people out with secondary offerings. That type of pitcher may need a little more time after TJ to get his feel back. I'm not worried because he's frosting on the second half cake anyways.

Linares ceiling is a mystery to me but realistically, at 27 he damn well better look better than the 22-23 year olds he plays with. He hasn't statistically torn up anything except in short spurts so my guess is that he's a potential 4th outfielder on the Sox if there are enough injuries or, on a lower tier team. I'd like to be wrong because he's a great Cuba story but at 27 he's pretty much at his peak.

I really haven't had the time to follow the early spring training results but typically the only thing that impacts my opinion during the spring are physical reports, who's in shape, who isn't and I haven't seen much of those except a few positive comments on Doubront and Brentz. I almost never look at spring stats or results, they are indicative of exactly nothing. A million and one statistical studies pretty much confirms that. When the games don't mean anything, the stats mean squat.

i missed your analysis this winter,im curious did the sox accomplish anything this offseason besides turning over most of the pitching staff and mgt.


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Free Agent Blogger
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 08:59 AM


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Addtion by subtraction. Wake and Tek are gone. No significant moves but I didn't think they needed anything drastic. The epic collapse is unlikely to happen again.



--------------------
Avatar is Stevie Ray Vaughan, snapshot from 1983 'Pride & Joy', Live at the El Mocambo. He simply died too young in a helicopter crash,there's no telling what he would have accomplished. He was a master of power guitar improvisation and rarely did anything the same way twice yet always sounded like he had always done it that way.
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Offbase
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 09:33 AM


Living Free in the Granite State


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Joined: 9-December 06



QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 08:45 AM)

ADD: I'm kind of a sucker for Linares type stories but realistically, in modern times, I can't think of a single player on any team that made his major league debut at 27 or older and had any kind of decent career. Can you ?

No. But usually that's because it took them too long to break through. The mystery is what could Linares have done if he'd been drafted out of high school or college, and because we can't know that, I can't hold his age against him. But I do think it's pointless to keep him around and not give him a chance.


--------------------
Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be all right.
The Jamaican and The Hawaiian

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Free Agent Blogger
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 10:19 AM


Moonlighting News Bot


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QUOTE (Offbase @ Mar 12 2012, 09:33 AM)
QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 08:45 AM)

ADD: I'm kind of a sucker for Linares type stories but realistically, in modern times, I can't think of a single player on any team that made his major league debut at 27 or older and had any kind of decent career. Can you ?

No. But usually that's because it took them too long to break through. The mystery is what could Linares have done if he'd been drafted out of high school or college, and because we can't know that, I can't hold his age against him. But I do think it's pointless to keep him around and not give him a chance.

He's likely to get some sort of chance this year and was likely last year until he broke his ankle. He has options so, it's not pointless. Even if his ultimate role is to be Sox taxi, that's a role. His option status, baring injuries, makes him unlikely to break camp with the Sox.

Keep in mind that in 2010, he had a grand total of 46 ABs with Portland and in 2011 60 ABs with Pawtucket. It's highly unlikely that he's ready for major league pitching, 106 American baseball ABs just isn't a viable background and that's a major concern considering he's 27.


--------------------
Avatar is Stevie Ray Vaughan, snapshot from 1983 'Pride & Joy', Live at the El Mocambo. He simply died too young in a helicopter crash,there's no telling what he would have accomplished. He was a master of power guitar improvisation and rarely did anything the same way twice yet always sounded like he had always done it that way.
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tracey
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 10:25 AM


Ray of Sunshine


Group: Members
Posts: 37,441
Member No.: 31
Joined: 14-December 06



QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 08:59 AM)
Addtion by subtraction. Wake and Tek are gone. No significant moves but I didn't think they needed anything drastic. The epic collapse is unlikely to happen again.

ive been yakking at what appears to be a pretty significant downgrade of the entire pen,ive seen analysis that partiay agreey and ones that dont,i also have serious reservations on our starting staff beyond lester and to a lesser extent josh,my primary concern is lack of innings potential,and of course im still trying to figure the scuts deal unless they are really looking at iglesias being in boston.your opinion fab please


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FUCK THE YANKEES
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Offbase
Posted: Mar 12 2012, 11:30 AM


Living Free in the Granite State


Group: Admin
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Joined: 9-December 06



QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 10:19 AM)
QUOTE (Offbase @ Mar 12 2012, 09:33 AM)
QUOTE (Free Agent Blogger @ Mar 12 2012, 08:45 AM)

ADD: I'm kind of a sucker for Linares type stories but realistically, in modern times, I can't think of a single player on any team that made his major league debut at 27 or older and had any kind of decent career. Can you ?

No. But usually that's because it took them too long to break through. The mystery is what could Linares have done if he'd been drafted out of high school or college, and because we can't know that, I can't hold his age against him. But I do think it's pointless to keep him around and not give him a chance.

He's likely to get some sort of chance this year and was likely last year until he broke his ankle. He has options so, it's not pointless. Even if his ultimate role is to be Sox taxi, that's a role. His option status, baring injuries, makes him unlikely to break camp with the Sox.

Keep in mind that in 2010, he had a grand total of 46 ABs with Portland and in 2011 60 ABs with Pawtucket. It's highly unlikely that he's ready for major league pitching, 106 American baseball ABs just isn't a viable background and that's a major concern considering he's 27.

I agree with all of that. I know his age is working against him, but that's why I'd trade him to a team that can use him at the MLB level if we can't. We have other options and he's running out of time.


--------------------
Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be all right.
The Jamaican and The Hawaiian

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