|QUOTE (tracey @ Sep 12 2011, 03:54 PM)|
|QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM)|
| Absolutely ... something.|
Great read on the limitations of WAR.
Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.
There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it?
you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.
Well part of the point is that nobody has shown whether it does or does not.
The studies that played 100 or a million probablility games and showed that the outcome did not depend on batting order, did not and could not take all the variables into account. How does a pitcher approach batter A with batter X on base? With batter B on deck? How does batter Z approach his at bat with a slugger on deck? with a speedster on base? when he's in a slump? When the on deck hitter is in a slump? when the speedster has a sore ankle? when he has a sore ankle? when the starting pitcher gave up 4 runs in the first inning?
Some of those things can be thrown into the variable stew and some can't.
Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.