| QUOTE (tracey @ Sep 12 2011, 03:54 PM) | | QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM) | Absolutely ... something.
Great read on the limitations of WAR.
Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.
There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it? |
you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.
|
Well part of the point is that nobody has shown whether it does or does not.
The studies that played 100 or a million probablility games and showed that the outcome did not depend on batting order, did not and could not take all the variables into account. How does a pitcher approach batter A with batter X on base? With batter B on deck? How does batter Z approach his at bat with a slugger on deck? with a speedster on base? when he's in a slump? When the on deck hitter is in a slump? when the speedster has a sore ankle? when he has a sore ankle? when the starting pitcher gave up 4 runs in the first inning?
Some of those things can be thrown into the variable stew and some can't.
--------------------
Georgie Porgie, he might buy the whole league, but he doesn't have enough money to buy fear to put in my heart. Pedro
|