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 WAR, What is it good for?
Offbase
Posted: Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM


Living Free in the Granite State


Group: Admin
Posts: 32,042
Member No.: 2
Joined: 9-December 06



Absolutely ... something.

Great read on the limitations of WAR.

Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.

There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it?


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The young Bill James rather famously wrote that he could not find any evidence that certain types of players could consistently hit better in the clutch – he still has not found that evidence. But unlike his younger self, he will not dismiss the idea of clutch hitting. He has been a consultant for the Red Sox for more than a decade, and he has watched David Ortiz deliver so many big hits in so many big moments, and he finds himself unwilling to deny that Big Papi does have an ability in those situations others don’t have.
Joe Posnanski
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tracey
Posted: Sep 12 2011, 02:54 PM


Ray of Sunshine


Group: Members
Posts: 38,277
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Joined: 14-December 06



QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM)
Absolutely ... something.

Great read on the limitations of WAR.

Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.

There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it?

you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.


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FUCK THE YANKEES
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Offbase
Posted: Sep 12 2011, 03:30 PM


Living Free in the Granite State


Group: Admin
Posts: 32,042
Member No.: 2
Joined: 9-December 06



QUOTE (tracey @ Sep 12 2011, 03:54 PM)
QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM)
Absolutely ... something.

Great read on the limitations of WAR.

Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.

There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another."  A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it?

you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.

Well part of the point is that nobody has shown whether it does or does not.

The studies that played 100 or a million probablility games and showed that the outcome did not depend on batting order, did not and could not take all the variables into account. How does a pitcher approach batter A with batter X on base? With batter B on deck? How does batter Z approach his at bat with a slugger on deck? with a speedster on base? when he's in a slump? When the on deck hitter is in a slump? when the speedster has a sore ankle? when he has a sore ankle? when the starting pitcher gave up 4 runs in the first inning?

Some of those things can be thrown into the variable stew and some can't.





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The young Bill James rather famously wrote that he could not find any evidence that certain types of players could consistently hit better in the clutch – he still has not found that evidence. But unlike his younger self, he will not dismiss the idea of clutch hitting. He has been a consultant for the Red Sox for more than a decade, and he has watched David Ortiz deliver so many big hits in so many big moments, and he finds himself unwilling to deny that Big Papi does have an ability in those situations others don’t have.
Joe Posnanski
Top
Offbase
Posted: Jul 19 2012, 02:14 PM


Living Free in the Granite State


Group: Admin
Posts: 32,042
Member No.: 2
Joined: 9-December 06



Another good write-up on WAR - BaseballReference's version.

That it rates Chipper over Jetes matters. supacool.gif


--------------------
The young Bill James rather famously wrote that he could not find any evidence that certain types of players could consistently hit better in the clutch – he still has not found that evidence. But unlike his younger self, he will not dismiss the idea of clutch hitting. He has been a consultant for the Red Sox for more than a decade, and he has watched David Ortiz deliver so many big hits in so many big moments, and he finds himself unwilling to deny that Big Papi does have an ability in those situations others don’t have.
Joe Posnanski
Top
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