Uponthemonster -> WAR

WAR, What is it good for?

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Offbase	Posted: Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM
Living Free in the Granite State Group: Admin Posts: 25,880 Member No.: 2 Joined: 9-December 06	Absolutely ... something. Great read on the limitations of WAR. Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check. There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it? -------------------- A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives. Jackie Robinson Whether information comes in a quantitative or qualitative flavor is not as important as how you use it. Nate Silver

tracey

Posted: Sep 12 2011, 02:54 PM

Ray of Sunshine

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QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM)

Absolutely ... something.

Great read on the limitations of WAR.

Even if you don't pay attention to numbers and / or the new-fangled stuff, this is a well written reality check.

There's even this: "We’ve struggled to understand and statistically represent the effect hitters have on one another." A hint that maybe lineup order does matter, we just don't know how to quantify it?

you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.

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FUCK THE YANKEES

Offbase

Posted: Sep 12 2011, 03:30 PM

Living Free in the Granite State

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QUOTE (tracey @ Sep 12 2011, 03:54 PM)

QUOTE (Offbase @ Sep 6 2011, 02:03 PM)

you mean the arguement we had about batting order mattering.it seems to matter,always did.

Well part of the point is that nobody has shown whether it does or does not.

The studies that played 100 or a million probablility games and showed that the outcome did not depend on batting order, did not and could not take all the variables into account. How does a pitcher approach batter A with batter X on base? With batter B on deck? How does batter Z approach his at bat with a slugger on deck? with a speedster on base? when he's in a slump? When the on deck hitter is in a slump? when the speedster has a sore ankle? when he has a sore ankle? when the starting pitcher gave up 4 runs in the first inning?

Some of those things can be thrown into the variable stew and some can't.

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A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives.
Jackie Robinson
Whether information comes in a quantitative or qualitative flavor is not as important as how you use it.
Nate Silver

Offbase	Posted: Jul 19 2012, 02:14 PM
Living Free in the Granite State Group: Admin Posts: 25,880 Member No.: 2 Joined: 9-December 06	Another good write-up on WAR - BaseballReference's version. That it rates Chipper over Jetes matters. -------------------- A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives. Jackie Robinson Whether information comes in a quantitative or qualitative flavor is not as important as how you use it. Nate Silver

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