OK folks, I've painted myself into enough of a corner that I'm going to make a stab at sewing my random speculations together into a coherent strategy. Don't try to stop me.

Biggest concerns remaining:

1: How to resolve the apparent hole at backup catcher

2: How to fill out the bullpen behind Oki, MDC, and Papelbon

3: How to round out the bench into effectiveness.

Alright, folks, let's do this. And for some added punch, let's do this without dealing away any more talent. In fact, let's deal Coco Crisp for high-ceiling pitching prospects, say from the Padres, just to get him out of the way.

1: Sign or trade for no catcher, but invite Doug Mirabelli to Spring Training while leaving the door open for any of our minor league catchers (Wagner, Still, Brown, Kottaras). Let's see what a good old fashioned horse-race will do for the ability of those kids to learn and grow. And if in the final analysis the kids need more seasoning.... then go with the Belli for one last year.

2: Since we have 6 viable starters I can only assume a 6 man rotation, leaving 6 spots in the bullpen. Other than Oki, Paps and Manuelito, Lopez, Snyder, and Tavarez are probably all back, with potential minor league injury replacements Corey and Breslow at AAA. Unless Tavarez is traded, that's your bullpen.

Craig Hansen works with his newly-rediscovered command and if he shows sufficient progress, is promoted at Snyder's expense.

A re-signing of Timlin will require you to either cut Snyder or trade Tavarez. Hansen breaking down the door would then lead to the departure of either Timlin or whichever one you didn't trade.

In midseason, evaluate Masterson and see if he could possibly take over long-man duties.

3: Sign Mike Lamb if Mike can't land a starting role. Mike is the best fit out there for a Hinske type role, and we can afford a $4-6M a year investment in him, which is probably what he would cost. Lamb is a good lefthanded platoon mate for both Lowell and Youkilis and will be useful in giving Tito an excuse to rest two righthanded players who would prefer not to rest.

"Look, lefties pound this guy so I want Lamb in the lineup. You take a day."

Make a bid for So Taguchi to replace Bobby Kielty. Taguchi gets on base well and defends a bit better although Kielty has more raw power. Also, Taguchi plays center.

Final Roster:

Lineup:

1: Ellsbury
2: Pedroia
3: Ortiz
4: Ramirez
5: Lowell
6: Drew
7: Youkilis
8: Varitek
9: Lugo

Bench:

Mirabelli, C
Lamb, 1B-3B
Taguchi, OF
Cora, IF

Rotation:
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Buchholz
Lester
Wakefield

Bullpen:
Papelbon
Okajima
Delcarmen
Timlin
Lopez
Tavarez/Snyder

All done. And all of our prospects safely tucked in. I'd go to war with that, although I'd love to upgrade Cora to Maicer Izturis and find another premium power arm to replace Timlin.

I dunno. Sounds good. good to see you're lugging Maicer Izturis around with you. I was with you on how good I thought he'd be last offseason on a different board, but at this point I doubt the Angels are going to be dealing him.

They could probably send him, Wood and Adenhart for Miggy C.
Wood takes over 3rd. Hanley goes to CF and Izturis takes over SS.

I don't really know what use Snyder is at this point though.....

The 6 man rotation isn't gonna happen. There's no way to give Beckett consistency and bring the rest along on that rotation. The kids also need to get used to that 5 man rotation. The 6 of them will get plenty of starts in a 5 man rotation conserving Lester and Clay's innings, and injuries happen. I'd hate to start with a 6 man rotation and then be forced into a 5 man because of injury, or having to promote a Masterson without much AAA experience into a f/t role.

I like Taguchi though. Hope Theo jumps on him. He functions so well in a p/t role and he'd be great to give everyone rest.

First it will take me a little more time to digest the full course meal, so let me start with just a little nibble at one of your side dishes.....Coco and the Padres.

I just don't see that happening. Pads need more punch more than more D. And their highest-ceiling pitching prospect.....who I think is Mat Latos......is about as untouchable as any Class A player.

The one I gotta wonder about is the 6-man rotation. I know that Matsuzaka is used to it, but it seems a little too far-fetched, especially with what Snowball put about it. Injuries can never be predicted, one can only guesstimate in terms of probability, and having a 6th starter ready to come in in case of injury is better than stretching your rotation to another starter.

Coco to the Pads? Hoo boy, if we thought he didn't have HR power here, it'll look wicked bad in that cavernous park. Our suitors will develop more clearly once Rowand & Jones are signed, but if you look at the teams that are trying to sign them, we have a lot of teams that Crisp can be sent to. The White Sox, Rangers, Phils, Braves are just a few I can think of that Coco can go to. I am curious as to why you think the Padres are the top fit, if you could elaborate...

I've probably managed to offend everybody who's posted in this thread so far but I've edited and deleted posts and renamed the thread. It got off to an unfortunate start and hopefully those who posted what's been removed will understand why I did what I did.

I've saved all the posts if you really want a record. Any questions, PM me.

Just please remember the content of the posts are fair game, the poster isn't. And humor can be misunderstood.

And I think we do need a place for a general team building discussion, so have at it. :happy:

I endorse the deletions.....although I think the thread got off to a fine start and it was the personal insults in response to George's start that were unfortunate.

Now for another nibble at a side dish.

Maicer Izturis?

I'd like to have him too, but he's a key cog for the Angels unless they acquire MCab, so I think we'd have to give up more than his upgrade value over Cora would be worth

Hey George,
I like your line-up. Why do you have Youk 7th and Drew 6th? I really like Tek 8th. All last year when he was batting 6th or 7th, I couldn't understand it.
I don't think Tavarez is going anywhere. He is too versatile. Guys that will try to do whatever the team needs, without complaint, are valuable.

Hi, George,
As with most, if not all, of your posts, I am in agreement with your strategy and line-up. Although were I to make a suggestion on the line-up, I'd agree also with DianeAdele and switch Youk and J.D. NBD.
Also, if Lamb and Taguchi are not available, how about re-signing Kielty and, having had Moss work at 1B and 3B in ST (as someone on another thread has suggested), make him the 4th bench-warmer? Just a thought.
Keep up the good work!
Later.

1950,
I really like Kielty as the 4th OF, and not because of the homerun during the WS. He contributed whenever he played. I don't think it is easy to play that role effectively and it shouldn't be undervalued (Jay Payton).

The reason I like Coco to the Pads isn't because of his power, it's because of his speed. Power doesn't play well in a big park, but speed very much does because of all the room a gapper has to roll. What little he has left to lose in HR's I think he makes up in triples. And of course, there's the incredible D. He'd be a good fit in San Diego for that reason, JMHO. Let him go to the fastball league and start driving gappers into a spacious outfield and within 3 months we'll be sending him "Wish You Were Here" notes, Ellsbury or no.

as for the 6 man rotation, let me know when you decide who goes to the pen.

Apologies for the outburst, but I think I'll keep the sig, since it has a certain ironic humor to it anyway.

I'm of the belief that if they acquire a power-hitting third baseman, or if Wood establishes himself at third for them, either of those things occurring plus their need to keep Figgins in the lineup means Izturis and Aybar fight for playing time. How many speedy infielders do you need? I also expect that either Izturis or Aybar would be potentially available in exchange for Carter, since Anaheim is starved for power and Carter could slot in as the full-time DH there so his defensive concerns would be minimized.

I wouldn't mind dealing for Aybar, and I think keeping Cora wouldn't be a terrible thing either, but hey, let a guy fantasize. Izturis would be a huge upgrade over Cora and might challenge Lugo for playing time at short.

EDIT: Nevermind, I suspect that the signing of Hunter means that Garrett Anderson is now their full-time DH a la Tim Salmon.

Hi.

I have youk 7th because he's a casualty of his own versatility -- Pedroia's established at second now, Drew has more power in an average year, and you need to break up the righty-righty-righty thing that would be happening if you lined Manny, Mikey and Youks up consecutively.

I've actually experimented in the past with the notion of hitting Drew second. I think that he's got enough of an ability to get on base, and can drive the ball well enough behind Ellsbury, that that could potentially be a good move and capitalize best on the part of his game he did well last year, which is getting on base (he'd be in many more situations as #2 hitter where taking a walk was exactly the right thing to do). Also, as a lefthanded pull hitter, Drew would smash a lot of base hits into right field, and hits to right give Ellsbury a better chance of going first to third or even scoring from first.

But that would mean Pedroia was hitting down in the bottom of the order, and I don't think that's the best use for him. Also that sets up a lefty-lefty-lefty problem with Ellsbury, Drew and Ortiz. And Papi can do the whole drive-the-ball-to-right thing too.

Ok George, that makes sense. Do you think the Drew we saw in September will the one we have for the next 4 years or will GIDP Drew be back in the spring? I like him even less than "3rd strike looking" Drew. :angry:

Drew had a number of fairly specific problems that led to his issues this year, at least in part. Combine his shoulder issues which were exposed last year with the health problems revolving around his child and you have a very distracted Drew with less power available to him than he would usually have. I'm under the impression, and the September numbers back me up in this, that those problems are all more or less behind Drew now. I'm not sure I expect 20 HR's out of him, but I expect a guy who drives the ball a bit harder and takes it the other way more regularly next year, which will lead to better numbers.

There was a time last year (a couple of weeks)when he hit the ball off the wall with some regularity. We could see glimpses of the Drew Theo saw, but not for long or often enough. I hope you are right about his future. I thought it was a different team in September/October when he got on a roll.

The amazing thing is that it wasn't a half bad team even before that.

George, you are right, it was a great team. I just have unrealistic expectations and that feeling of impending doom from the start of ST until the last out of the season.

It can take a long time to overcome negative reinforcement. Hang in there. These are not your mother's Sox. :rolleyes:

I know...These are my grandfather's sox. 2 WS helps, but I have a lifetime of pain and disappointment to overcome.

Welcome DA,I see I may have a fellow paranoid. :VBG:

You should check the archives and see me in my midseason form. :raspberry:

I've somehow managed to leave behind the feeling of impending doom that was central to the psyche of all Sox fans.

When the Sox lead was down to a game and a half over the Yankees, I felt like it was going to turn around.

When the Sox were down 3-1 to the Indians, I really had a hard time envisioning us losing to the Indians.

I really felt like Schilling and Matsuzaka were going to pitch well in games 6 and 7.

I didn't have the bulletproof faith that Beckett was an automatic win in game 1 of the WS like so many others in the media seemed to, but I felt confident he was going to make it tough on them.

I was born in 1970. Cried when Yaz popped out to end the 1978 season. Sat in stunned disbelief when I saw us lose in '86. Was frustrated in the late 90s when Nomar and Pedro couldn't get us by the Yankees in the playoffs. Was ANGRY at Grady in '03 because I thought Pedro should not have even come out for that next inning.

2004 and the competence, confidence and determination of JH, Tom, Larry, and Theo and collection of determined players have led me to feel like there is no more 'curse' or basis for a 'doomed' Red Sox psyche. People fear Manny and Papi. Youkilis and Pedroia compete with a fire and fearlessness that give NOBODY a mental edge over us. Beckett, Schilling and Papelbon have a determination and big game focus that will always serve us well and set the tone for the rest of the guys on the staff. It doesn't make us invincible or unbeatable, but it gives me a feeling that the other team's going to have to play real well to beat us and that we're going out there ready to kick someone's ass. We saw Papi and Schilling use that legacy of '04 to help rally the troops this year in the Cleveland series. Boston's the only team in history to come back from 0-3 and win..and it was against the Yankees. I think that's a legacy that will linger for a long time to come.

Have you met Tracy? :raspberry:

I am sorry that I did make an unneeded and rude comment as my firtst reaction to this thread. I am glad it was deleted. May I plead too much holiday cheer?

The view I have of the "Big Picture" moving forward is that the Red Sox have yet to improve themselves for 08. I know many will claim a full season out of Ellsbury as well as improvements over some 07 performances will place the team in better standing, but I don't see it that way at all. Now, I expect them to contend,,, but I don't see where they are stronger.

Hence, I'm very curious to see what the Winter Meetings in Nashville may produce.

I'm still holding out hope that the Red Sox will get very involved with Minnesota and Oakland on Santana and Haren. Either of those two pitchers greatly improves the starting rotation not only for 08, but beyond. And the cost, while it may be steep should not be an automatic kill switch on a deal.

Players like Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lester merely give the Red Sox pause to dream what the future COULD be like. Santana or Haren represent a more realistic view of that future. Obtaining either of those pitchers at the cost of some highly regarded talent gives the Red Sox a starting rotation that includes Beckett, Dice-K and either Santana or Haren at the top of the rotation for quite a few years. I know both pitchers would require a contract extension, but I doubt that would be anything more than a formality. Pitching dictates winning and the Red Sox are in a unique position to set up a rather strong rotation for the next few years.

I think that's the "Big Picture" Theo is trying to piece together for the Red Sox currently.

PA, now im confused and not by you all these years Ive had the go for it now mentality,trade the kids,sighn the best players all that type of stuff,Ive learned a lot here about kids and their value,so help me here,i agree the sox have not improved at all in fact one could argue that they may have lost a half step.How does trading the potential future for a lets say Santana help,which of the 6 starters we have sits,is one traded,is starting pitching a need for this year?I wonder whether finding teks succesor or Mannys may be a more pressing need based on what Ive heard about whats on the farm.One lats point for all,schilling talked about a potential bomshell thsi offseason,anybody have any idea what that could be or in what direction to look for it?

Ouality pitching remains the one constant in baseball Tracey. It always has been and always will be. You either have it or you don't. The chances of having a real shot at winning titles is dictated by that. Given the chance to obtain a PROVEN pitcher still having the potential of dominant years ahead of him at the cost of prospects is a no brainer IMHO.

If Sanatana or Haren could be had in a trade I wouldn't let the cost of prospects stand in the way. For all of the promise Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, etc may have shown, nobody can accurately predict what their worth or impact in the future will be. And more importantly, they haven't been proven at the MLB level. Santana and Haren have. Either of those pitchers would ensure the Red Sox are set up to have a dominant staff for the next several years.

With the ability to keep the starting lineup largely in tact for the next three to four years I think obtaining Sanatana or Haren is the smart move. Losing some combination of quality prospects like the players I mentioned would not have a huge impact on the organization for a number of years. If it would, I might be taking a much different approach to this discussion.

Those players could all go on to have great careers, but I don't see a huge gamble in using them to strengthen the pitching staff. As I said In my first post, obtaining either of those two starting pitchers gives the Red Sox a strong staring rotation with three potentially dominant arms for the next three to four years. It would disappoint me greatly if the Red Sox let prospects stand in the way of that.

Beckett, Schill and Matsuzaka aren't exactly chopped liver. I think that when it comes to quality pitching, we don't have enough because you can't, but you have to consider the possibility of subtraction by addition if we try to add too much more. By which I mean, how much does the chasing of big names now hurt is 5 years from now when Lester and Buchholz would BE the established prime talent -- for someone else.

Unless I'm mistaken Schill signed a one-year deal. And he's given every indication that he's not really interested in pitching past that. So the Beckett, Dice-K and Schill trio lasts for one more season. Santana or Haren builds that bridge even farther out on the number of years the Sox could have three dominant starting pitchers.

If your preference is to keep the young arms I've got no problem with that. I'm not going to argue someone's preference. However it's hard to make any argument that the Sox should not be extremely involved in trying to make this trade for either guy.

The fact of the matter is that you cannot remotely predict where Buchholz or Lester will be in five years. There are too many factors working against doing that. Bringing in Santana or Haren..? While an accurate prediction can't be made about how they would exactly fair both have a proven track record which paints a much clearer picture. Each has stood up to MLB lineups for the past few years with considerable success and both are below the age of 30.

You made this comment: "I think that when it comes to quality pitching, we don't have enough because you can't".

Well, here's an opportunity to be able to in fact get enough quality starting pitching to set you up for the next four to five years. And the cost would be turning over a group pf prospects who still have numerous hurdles to clear before they can even be considered the quality of either of these two players.

I just don't see how the Red Sox could not seriously consider making a deal for either and have the cost of several prospects stand in their way. :confused:

Right now, Schilling is a bridge that allows Buchholz to build seamlessly up to 200 IP's. Next year it'll be Beckett, Daisuke and Clay, possibly with Bowden and Masterson in the mix. If you do nothing we have a very good shot at contending this year while allowing us to contend consistently in the long run.

There's gotta be a point where you trust your farm and its crop, so to speak. Johan is a dominant pitcher, but he has the potential for failure just as Clay does. However, if Santana fails, you've invested millions more in a contract to a guy who's been known to have elbow problems. In comparison, Clay has shown he can be just as dominant as Johan, if not more (despite Santana being a great pitcher, he has never had a no-no; Clay's got him on that one). You saw the performance Clay gave against the Orioles, and he showed us a dominant presence, not one that looked like a fluke.

Note: I quoted George to assert that I agree with him on this.

Sure.
I'm blaming the dark, the cold, baseball deprivation, months more of same before truck day ... remember, my name used to be OffcznBlues back on BDC.

There's a little nag at the back of my brain saying PA is right, proven performance over a few MLB seasons is worth more than a *looks like he'll become a proven performer* a few years from now.

But the bigger part of my brain - and my heart - says Buchholz is for real, the Red Sox training staff can keep him healthy, the way batters swing and miss against him tells how good that changeup is, the way he can throw what Tek asks for, where he asks for it, it any count tells how good his command is, the way he doesn't get rattled when things go wrong tells how good his makeup is. The fact that he has Beckett as a role model tells me it's going to be a blast watching him try to be better than the best.

Trading him would be an act of fear - fear that he won't live up to his potential, fear that something will go wrong, fear of risk, fear of trusting what we see.

Remember this is a rookie who practiced with one catcher prior to his MLB debut, then lost that catcher after the first inning and had to throw to someone he'd never played with. He won the game.

I want to take the risk of keeping Clay Buchholz.

Yeah, I had a similar problem when I took that look outside the plane at about 10,000 feet. It said, "Wait, this plane can fly us down to safety, but instead you want to jump?" It's a good thing I'm insane, and the rest of me duct-taped that nags's mouth before I jumped. :weg:

I'll have some of what Off's having...and make it a double! :thumbup:

I have a question. Does anyone remember who the 4 prospects we gave up for Schilling were? And where are they now? I haven't heard anyone lament losing them, even when Schilling has struggled. I was just thinking about it as it relates to the proven talent vs prospects debate.

From memory, wasn't Casey Fossum one of them? He's doing time in Tampa Bay's bullpen the last I knew. I can't remember the others.

Casey Fossum and Brandon Lyon were the 2 big pieces of that puzzle. IIRC there were also a couple of PTBNL's whom I don't recall at the moment.

I hate to think of Lester leaving after he returned from cancer and won the clinching game of the World Series. But if he could bring back Santana, it would be hard to gripe. Bucholz has a higher ceiling in my view and after he pitched a no-hitter and showed what he has, if I was going to let him go it would be ALMOST straight up for Santana with Crisp as the add-on. Which of course would likely not get it done and that's okay. I'm assigning a value to Bucholz that is very high, less so for Lester.

Jorge de la Rosa and Michael Goss.

Good point, DA