For those of you looking to play the 2007 "Blame Game", you are going to have a really hard time trying to nail down one area of concern or one or two individuals. The reason for that is due to the fact that the Red Sox are actually a really good team. A 70-47 record on the morning of 8/13/07 bears that out.

Throughout the threads many individuals have tried to pinpoint the problem. However, the usual suspects have been proven wrong due to statistical evidence that strongly suggests otherwise. For example many people try and point to the bats. But as the stats show, despite a handfull of players performing below standards the team has hit the ball well enough and scored enough runs to have them ranked amound the better hitting teams in the league. And despite a few misteps by starting & relief pitchers in the last few weeks the staff has performed well above expectations. And even with Francona you are looking at a body of work that suggests he's putting the team in position to win more often than not. These are professionals and they are expected to perform in all situations and not rely on being babied by their manager.

But obviously there has to be a problem somewhere.

After pouring over some less traditional numbers I think the Red Sox problem is fairly obvious. This team doesn't have the same late inning magic we witnessed during the period from 2003 thru 2005 in which the Red Sox earned three straigh post-season trips.

Heading into tonight's game the Red Sox are 8-41 in games they trail after six innings. Going further they are 6-42 trailing after seven and 1-41 when trailing after eight. Overall, the Red Sox have had 28 come-from-behind wins, but the majority of those are games in which they trailed prior to the completion of the sixth inning. Making matters worse in this discussion is the fact that the Red Sox have scored more runs in the eighth inning (91) than they have in any other inning. Had the Red Sox found a way to come up with a few big hits late in games to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat they could have been getting ready to walk away with the crown. By contrast they are 65-2 with a lead after six innings, 63-2 after seven and 67-1 after eight. But that suggests the pitching, mainly the pen, has been greatly successful and backs up their stats. In short, the Red Sox are lacking the late inning magic at the plate that propelled them to success in that three year period previously discussed.

However, that gets confusing also when trying to nail down who isn't performing. The first suspect is Ortiz. He's been the late inning glory guy for this team for years. Yet, we all know in that three year period it seemed like new guys got big hits almost everytime they came from behind late in games. It wasn't just Ortiz getting all the big hits. So, it's all but impossible to place the blame on any one individual this year.

To me that's the problem. Statistically they are a very good hitting team. They are not hitting a lot of HR's, but their run production has been very solid. However, they need to find a way to reclaim that late inning magic. They need a couple of come-from-behind wins after the sixth inning to get them moving ahead in the right direction. Basically, that;'s what good teams do, they find a way to win games late. And they usually do that with some big hits at the plate. If the Red Sox can start doing that... It will go a long way into helping them into the post-season. Otherwise the Red Sox will have done something none of us had previously thought possible. They will have wasted a season in which they received the pitching they needed.

The only real lack is in HR punch and BA/RISP which agree exactly with what you're saying, PA. The Sox are hitting well but not at the most opportune time. In other words, it's a bunch of bad freakin' luck. :angry:

certainly yestday was a case of bad luck as we got solid wood a number of times only to result in outs ..

I agree with PAs analysis mostly because I believe magic is a real element of athletic achievement
... the second thing that may explain a little is we've got an older team and we've got no 'bennies'
.. a third thing is the players are aware of what's going on and now are pressing later in the game; a little tension, or trying to do too much makes a big difference in an at bat against a major league pitcher

BA w/RISP is actually a pretty decent .274 clip. OPS w/RISP is a healthy .818. Opponents by contrast are at .236 avg, .689 OPS w/RISP.

"Close and Late" is also a respectable .259 avg/.720 OPS as compared to .184/.547 for opponents.

I think what we're seeing is that the Sox pen (prior to this weekend :angry: ) has been absolutely amazing at shutting teams down when protecting late leads. The Sox for their part have generally struggled against premier pitching. ie Closers, top setup men and Aces of staff.

This could be bad luck or could be a big problem come October.

red sox advisor bill james does not believe in the clutch thing

:rofl: at least your keeping your sense of humour .. personally I don't have a very high opinion of some of Bill's data (I think Range Factor is a joke) but there has been a high degree of correlation to runs scored with regards to some of the offensive data that Bill was a pioneer in developing

But the thing is, how many championships has Bill James won?

It is a good way to build a solid team, but winning it all is a different story.

But the real thing is, and I do not even know how to describe this, but there is something about this team
that is somewhere between annoying and not overly loveable. For example, Drew in the outfield on Friday night. I just do not like players like that. Manny and trying to steal third base yesterday - not really funny at this point. Francona and some of his decisions that appear to say "I am not really sure of this line up or this bull pen." Coco Crisp taking last Wednesday when he had Thursday off anyway - just seemed more "me" than "team." My two cents for whatever they are worth.

I think that I would be alright if things did not end up into the playoffs or to the WS. It is just that it feels like a dagger in the heart if the Yanks get the division.

For the last few days.......I don't have a problem playing the "blame game"...... to me it comes down to one name ........ Eric Gagme.......oh and maybe another...... Theo Epstein!! :angry:

I don't think it's bad luck.....I think it was a bad acquisition!! I just don't get it :confused: ......how do you ruin one of baseball's best setup and closer roles by signing Gagne?? If it ain't broke......don't fix it!!!!!!!!! :banghead:

I was a big proponent of adding depth to the pen. Still like the idea, but I'm kind of like Trot in that I'm really standoffish about picking up bullpen arms in trades.

I'm wondering...what about the waivers? DFA? I look at those this way:

1). He was having a great year closing for the Rangers. He's always been a closer. This role shift seems to have fucked with his mojo. I say give him 1, maybe 2 low leverage appearance opportunities (HOPEFULLY that opportunity will present itself this upcomiong series), if he gets it together give him another high leverage shot,. If he screws the pooch he's useless.

2). Putting him on waivers or a DFA creates a trade scenario, and one in which his chances of going to a potential post season opponent are very, VERY slim. He's not staying after this year anyway, if he's not going to be able to get the job done that he was brought here to do why keep him, especially with Timlin healthy and throwing great (had a GREAT appearance yesterday), and MDC gaining confidence every time out (also had a GREAT appearance yesterday).

I don't know, what do you guys think?

Alright, but Pete addressed the Gagne situation pretty effectively the other day.

The acquisition was a solid one. He was the best BP arm on the market, and we got him (and kept him away from NYY, Detroit and Cleveland, who could all have used him). The pundits did say that we had the division sewn up when we got him.

The fact that his performance in a Sox uniform so far has been inexplicably horrible, is not something that you can legitimately blame Theo for.

Bill James has won zero championships but his philosophies on offense have been instrumental in putting together some championship teams ...

With regard to the things that bothered you this weekend, Drew and Manny both made errors in judgement, Drew for thinking he could make an impossible catch and then getting caught in-between, Manny for thinking he is a bit faster than he is. Having said that, Drew catching that ball would have been fabulous and Manny on 3rd with one out with the 'almost' inevitable JD ground out to second knocking him in would have been nice. It is a sign they are pressing, being overly agressive ..... I agree though somewhat sad to watch ..

I think Coco is banged up from that friggin' Seattle mascot; everytime I watch the reply it appears the thing caught a piece of his body ..

Hard for me to defend Tito as he doesn't have to perform as much as use his head .. and he is going through a bad patch right now ..

It is a long haul to the World Series so I suspect you are preserving your sanity in understanding the odds are somewhat stacked against any one team winning it ...

Don't lose faith though Donna, the rollercoaster and romantic voyage of the 2007 Sox continues .. there will be lots of gutsy performances and lots of great drama ahead ... I love watching Dice-K and Beckett .. think Papelbon is not only great but a real funny character .. the Okajimi story has been awesome .. Pedroia and Youkie continue to astound .. Lowell is a great professional .. ... Manny and Papi will mesmorize us at least a couple of times more .. Crisp is great in the field .. Drew may yet play the role we all desire .. and Lugo has been crunching the ball like he use to .. etc., etc.

Two games hasn't erased what was once a double digit lead in the division. So, I don't know how Eric Gagne's name even comes into the discussion. Let alone Theo Epstein who would have roundly been crucified had he let the trade deadline pass without trying to strengthen this team down the stretch. So, I don't know how either name comes into play.

Looking back you'll find that the starting pitching and pen have both maintained a solid level of performance long past April and May. You'll also see that the bats have kept up a solid pace and the defense has actually improved.

I'm sorry, but for the better part of the season this team has lacked the ability to put teams away effectively with runners in scoring position late or rally late for a victory. Everything has been a battle since June 1st and the pitching staff, especially the pen has had to carry the load. And that's the reason they NEEDED help in the pen. Some way, some how this team needs to find a spark in their lineup that can delivery a couple of big blows late in games to take the pressure off the staff and maybe jump start this lineup. All of them have been guilty of not delivering late in games or getting that big hit in the middle of a game that guts their opponent and puts a game away. That goes for Ortiz, Manny, Youk, Lowell, Drew, Lugo, etc. It's been a team effort in the batting order not to deliver and keep the pressure on the pen.

I can't stand BP acquasitions.... BUT.... Gagne is a different animal. I am TOTALLY against them 100% and believe they need to be developed rather than acquired EXCEPT for the top tier (but they're normally unavailable).
I still think Gagne was a great acquasition and it WILL pay off. Bullpen arms are like stinkin' Grandparents... they need a routine, they need to know their role and they need to embrace it through and through.
I think Gagne is having the "Scott Williamson" Adjustment Period. He's just too good, too smart and still has too much life on his stuff to think there's something wrong with him. I think he'll adjust.

That said... one thing that worried me was that Tito would try and get too clever with too many guns. Pulling out a gun for the one eyed pirate and then a different one for the one legged pirate, when in fact, the first gun that killed the one eyed pirate would probably have been fine for the one legged one too.

ie- Okajima has been dominating people from both sides of the plate, why bring in a righty to face Tejada? I was a little scared he'd start overthinking......

That said, the team is having problems that go beyond statistics. There's seriously something amiss, and it DOES seem when you break it down.... there's no reason for the less than stellar play the last 2.5 months... which makes me think that there's a whole bunch of bad luck out there and that things eventually will break.

---did anyone see replays of Mariano's save last night!?!?! Pure luck... he got whacked around but everyball that was put into play (and put into play with SERIOUS, SERIOUS, SERIOUS authorityl- scorchers!!!!!) were RIGHT at a defender. It had nothing to do with skillful positioning or anything other than crap luck.. period. Cano's BABIP. Cabrera's BABIP.... all these things are just screaming that the Yankees are presently playing some of the luckiest baseball since... ummmmm.... 2005 Yankees (*gulp*). Of course I sure as hell am not saying they're a bad baseball team... they were much better than their first two months, and we weren't as good as our first two months. They're not as good as their last two months, and we're not as bad as our last two months. I still believe if things settle, we're the best team in MLB. We're just playing like one legged buffalos in heat

Looking at team batting stats across the "Close and Late" split, you see that the Sox have an anemic 69 runs in close and late situations. 13th out of 14 in the AL, just barely ahead of KC and 11 runs off the AL league average.

We've all seen it, but you've summed it up PA. This team needs more heroics.

Luck is playing a factor. There's also a killer instinct at play here that the Sox are lacking... they don't get that extra run or 2 against the middle relief that would put game away. They don't come back late, they don't win in extra innings, etc.

I have more than once turned off close games late because you know they're not coming back. No cinderellas so far this year.

That said, maybe you don't need to come back if you can dominate with starting pitching and close out with a dominant bullpen. Schilling showed enough yesterday and against the Angels that he can still be a championship starter. 3 down, 1 to go.

some mental mistakes in the final innings? Players pressing too hard? I seriously doubt that any player doesn't want to win every single game and I'm sure they all try their darndest (well.... maybe JD?....). So lack of a "killer instinct" IMO is just lack of execution and mental mistakes due to pressure....
THAT, is why clutch exists

the lack of someone who can win a game with one swing is an issue,that was ortiz dept,the issue now is he will likely fall into the category of the rest of the sox lineup line drive singles and doubles,its just a tough way to win ball games and does make the job of opposition pitching that much easier,i have a question ;at his point in the season who in the red sox line up scares the opposition?

Nice job Pasox, with bringing objectivity to a very emotional situation. The lack of heroic late game performances has actually been pretty apparent for over a year now. It is time for this team to get a pair again, get angry at themselves and execute in the tough ABs late in the game..Someone needs to step up big time and carry this team on his shoulders for a stretch. I'm lookin to Manny to be that guy. After all, he owes us and his mates, after his last 1/4 of the season vacation last summer. I am not blamin him, just lookin for him to rise up to his star status and dominate!!!

Well I believe Gagne blew two games in the past week so we'd be up 6 instead of 4.....again why do we need Gagne when our setup man and closer are getting the job done? Gagne probably won't be with the Sox next season anyway. Sorry guys but I don't agree that Gagne was a good acquisition. And if one of the reasons Theo made the deal is so the Yankees wouldn't acquire him......well right now I wish he was pitching for the Yankees.

Okajima is at an all time high in IP already.
Papelbon is light's out, but we saw what might happen to his shoulder last year.

That is why Gagne is here.

What Thin said... They were heading for a point in which Okajima and Papelbon were in serious danger of being overused or being used more than the team had intended. At that point you had Timlin, who everybody had thought was heading in the wrong direction with some shoulder issues and Delcarmen is still young. Then you had the factor of Donnelly being out for the season, so the depth in the was pen was in serious question. Again, had Theo not made a move at the deadline he would have been held up as someone who wasn't doing his job. As it stands he got the most sought after pen arm available and he did it without selling the farm. And again... the last week hasn't shaved off the majority of what was once a commanding lead.

one point,the sox played 2 mos of incredible baseball and have spent 2 and half mos playing 500 level,the issue seems to be not which of the 2 is reality,but how much closer to the second is reality just based on time playing at that level.

Ah yes... I know that feeling, when you can't help but dislike a team.
I'm sure it is "the real thing," the difference between winning and losing games.

You know, I get the willies watching A-Rod do anything. I hate the way Captain Intangibles appears to glow under the lights. I think Melky is a stupid name. Bobby Abreu is afraid of walls and Giambi makes me ashamed to be Italian.

These guys aren't just between annoying and loveable.. Their far to the right of disgusting and reprehensible... But that hasn't impeded their ability to win baseball games.

Come to think of it, and this is pretty strange, but I guess how much you like players really never has a direct impact on their ability to win. (Ah Graffanino... we hardly knew ye...)

Yep, it's been performances like last night that have been missing. Games like that have a direct effect on how a team plays. When you have that spark and confidence... you can really get on a roll. And it doesn't always have to be Ortiz and Manny stepping up late.

Big, BIG WIN! :thumbup:

Now let's hope it has some carry over. That's the next step. Let's build on this win!!!

You know, I really like these analogies.

Great job...

i was thinking about this,after the game,yes it was great come from behind win,but would have told us more if this had been a come from behind win wit a 2 or 3 run deficit a final of6-5.i keep coming back to lack of scoring which has been for a while.

A HR
A double
A walkoff RBI single

Since the ASB, the Sox are 2nd in the AL in runs scored

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but please don't spread misinformation. The Sox do not have a problem scoring runs.

They have had a recent problem with scoring timely runs, which hopefully started to correct itself last night.

holy crap Tracy..... how do you sleep, knowing that there's a chance that your car could get broken into. What about walking down a sidewalk, knowing that there's a chance that a rabid antelope could gallop out of an alley and chew your legs off!!??!!???
HO-LEE.......CRAP.

gotta love you amigo.... but we just had a GREAT pitching performance against the team with the 5th best offense in the AL, saw Gagne step up and saw us score 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th to come from behind and win. We haven't seen 3 of those things before.

Gagne sucking? fixed!
Lester struggling? fixed!
late inning heroics? fixed!

C'mon tracey, relax, enjoy the win, it was GREAT! :D

Holy Crap Tracey... really ? You have way too much time on your hands. We came from behind and won, enjoy it. How is your ulcer?

If someone gave you $10.00 would you say thanks, but I could really use $20.00?

Tracey: I really don't object to your pointing out the things that the team neeeds to improve, honest, that's half the reason I read this board, to benifit from others knowledge. I just want you to enjoy the games too. Maybe if you listed some of the good along with the bad, it would be better balanced and a bit eadier to digest your points. Keep watching and posting - it's really gettting exciting!

macs idid poit out that it was good win and it was ,but im not sure it tells us much because of the once again low run total.one thing that i need to plug in is that we will not be seeing any meaninful displys of power because of the ortiz injury and the assumption on my part that by in large teamswill not take any chance on manny to get to the back of what can be argued a very ordinary middle and perhaps below average back of the lineup.i get to watch this afternoon at least off and on and will be curious if last nite does provide momentum

Once again -- slowly.

SINCE THE ASB, THE RED SOX ARE 2ND IN THE AL IN RUNS SCORED.



What part of that are you having difficulty understanding?

:banghead:

Tracey,

Kazmir is one of the best young pitchers in the game, and a kid who ALWAYS gives the Sox a tough time- they're just not going to drop a 6 runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings on him.

I guess I just don't get your fascination with blowouts, and how you seem to think they are the only indication of how well a team is playing.

Take this into consideration- in the last 2 games, Sox pitching has held one of the leagues best offenses to 1 RUN!!! You think the Yankees are capable of that?

...chill man...ride the wave...

I don't know Thin... some people just can't get it through their heads huh

I guess if you're not scoring 8 runs a game you're not really 'winning' :confused: , just getting lucky...

...let's see the Yankees take one of the league's better offenses and hold them to 1 run in 2 games.

all i know is the red sox prior to the home stand since june 1 have been a 500 club,thats a long time to be playing at that level.its not the issue of blowouts once you concced that hrs are not iportant than blowouts almost have tobe less common,and thats ok,but there is no question that run production has slowed down as our pitching has remained at ahigh level,we do play in the al which tends to be a higher scoring league and i refuse to buy that this pitching staff or another pitching staff is going to pitch lke we have the las t few games,it simply is not realistic to expect holding teams to one and 2 runs game in and game out.kazmir is great but he is beatble heis 9-7 for a reason.im looking forward to the yankee series to see if the sox can put together a few games wher they hold them to just one and 2 runs,if they do than i will conceed that you can pitch your way to a title,you still need to score runs,and the fact that they are second in the league may very well be tied to the fast start back when youk was hitting 340 or so and had double anwas putting the ball over the fence,not to mention papi etc.i just see a problem that you guys dont and wew ill find out soon how right or wrong i will be.

All I care about is that we get a W at the end of 9 innings. Scoring 20 runs doesn't make the W any bigger and we don't get to carry over unnecessary runs.. so really what does it matter?

The issue Tracy is that June 1st is an arbitrary date.
We sucked in June.

Why not set a different arbitrary date.... the end of April instead... or after the AllStar Break?

I like that.

But, to play Tracey's game:

since June 1st, the Sox are 36-31, a winning % of .538. There are a grand total of 8 teams (not counting the Sox) who have a better winning % then that ON THE SEASON! BTW, in that is included a 25-17 record since July 1st.

...seriously Tracey, it's not anywhere NEAR as bad as you think it is