Bringing the *Best Starter* poll over from the old board.

I think I may have voted for Dice K last time, but I'm feeling more reasonable today and have to go with the dean of the Sox staff, Schilling. The old men seem to get it done these days and Schilling definitely has the best brain if not the best arm.

I'm going to go with Beckett here. I was kind of impressed that he showed some real willingness to make adjustments the latter part of the regular season and used his off-seed stuff more effectively. Then factor in that he won't be such a huge focal point of the staff, that is reserved for Dice-K to start the season.

I'm looking for a year in which Beckett might very well take that next step in his development and really establish himself as a top of the rotation guy. I can see him going towards 18-20 wins and keeping that era in the 3.45 - 3.65 area for the year. He'll probably have some moments where his ego gets in the way a little and he goes to the fastball too often. But I think those moments will far and few between.

I'm still .....rolling the Dice!

He's young, talented and he's new to the league. Glad WE have him!

I think Beckett will do very well this year. I voted for him. The first year is often the toughest on a new team, especially for the younger guys. Dice-K could really come through in a big way, but he may need a year to feel at home. Just hope the media doesn't Arod him, though I am pretty sure the fans won't.There are still holes in our pitching, but compared to how desperate we were at the end of the season, I feel alot more hopeful. I hope noone ever gets the idea that you can have too much good pitching.

I voted for Nuke as well. Besides the fact that he's in his second season in the AL East, he'll most likely be our number 3 and therefore facing other number 3s. This will allow him to put up a few stinkers and come away with no decisions or possibly wins.

I too am sticking with my original vote. I suspect the three kids in the rotation are going to be in serious competition with each other. They're all talented but Josh has the experience advatage in that group. :D

I voted for Beckett because I think he will pitch better this year. But I think Curt will pitch well also. I'm not really sure about Dice-K but I can hope.

I think this will be, barring injury (always have to throw that caveat in), Nuke's breakout year. He's not going to feel the pressure of anchoring the staff, and I think the other Japanese dude they signed before D-Mat and Donnelly will make for a far better bullpen. He'll also have the benefit of knowing the league, as well as a full ST to work with Tek (no WBC this year).

Then again, if we have 4 guys win 15 games and get a dozen from Paps, that wouldn't be so bad either! :D

I voted for Matsuzaka.

I think that Matsuzaka will benefit from several factors:

1) He's a good pitcher ;)

2) The hitters don't yet know him

3) The umpires will want him to succeed

OK, perhaps my cynicism is showing...but I still think that many Boston players weren't given the corners of the strike zone by umps last year. I expect Matsuzaka to get those corners. MLB profits by Matsuzaka's success...at the very least, he'll get fair calls, I expect.

***

On a related note, I'm wondering if the FO's recent drive to push total payroll beyond the CBT threshold will result in the umpires' giving some of our newer guys--especially Youks, Pedroia and Beckett--a little better break regarding calls on pitches near the edge of the strike zone. The Yankees were getting those calls ever since Steinbrenner's reminder to the world in early May, 2005, that he alone was disregarding the CBT threshold. Now there are two teams whose payrolls will significantly exceed the CBT. IMVHO, this'll possibly make a big difference for a few Red Sox players, with Beckett immediately coming to mind as one potential beneficiary.

But I still expect that, at least for 2007, Matsuzaka will be the best Red Sox pitcher. :D

JHB,

I love that signature line you picked. (Dices quote). You could use that as a 4th reason that he'll be our best in 07.

That answer alone has to give you a sense for what we may be in for. Hope he meets his own goals in the Major Leagues.

I still think Beckett will better than K-Monstah in the rotation this year. Bets are off for 2008, though :D .

I'm sticking with Beckett, provided we see that two-seamer that Snowball's been harping at Josh to hone this offseason. Add to it that he'll have much less pressure with Daisuke coming in as "the future no. 1," that he got over the 200-inning mark last year and that he adjusted well to the AL East in the final starts (minus the very last start), Josh looks primed to make 2007 his breakout year.

Plus, wouldn't it be fantastic to have a #1, #1a, and #1b starters in Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Papelbon for 2008 and beyond? :silly: :thumbup: :afro:

Let's continue the fantasy and have Lester as a #1c...
... and then Buccholz as a #1d...
...and then Bowden as a #1e.....
.... and then Bard as a #1f......
....and then Masterson as a #1g......
Geez... and I'm stopping with some many others for those h, i, j, ......

Tell ya what... Until that fabled farm system we keep hearing about starts spitting out the shitload of pitching we keep hearing about, I'll stick to projecting the actual guys on this year's roster.

I am in the Beckett camp. A year of experience in the league, the intensity of Boston and what it is like to have a ball club behind him that can produce wins even when his stuff is not the best, should lead to him be relaxed and confident this year. Not of course relaxed to the point that he looses intensity, just to the point at which he knows he can just go out and throw his best vs. fighting for every pitch to be just right. He looked like a fighter last year, I think the thrower this year wins 20- 22 games!!!

Thin
I voted for Schilling....Beckett could be the guy if he pitches a little more and throws a liitle less...Paps could be the guy if he can continue to throw strikes as a starter and manage his pitch count, but hopefully Tito or Farrell doesn't let Paps try and pitch 200 innings his first ful time out as a starter......the monster could be the guy if he's as advertised and not phased by the cultural stuff....Schill knows how to get it done, and will be motivated to go out as the guy

I expect great things from this staff - I say get a closer on Mon, go to ft myers on tues........

It actually fills me with hope for 2007 that there's so many compelling reasons why this or that Sox starter's gonna be lights out. Bring on the new season! :clap:

I'm throwing in my vote for Beckett... his one year of adjusting is over.. time for him to become our ace.. and then have Beckett, Pap and Dice duke it out for top spot in 2008... good times!

Why is it that when I state my rigorous, statistically-founded beliefs that the 2007 Red Sox will be lights-out, others often suggest that I am full of something other than hope?

:confused:

***

If one posits the following chances that each of our starters will have a Cy Young-caliber season:

Matsuzaka 33%
Beckett 33%
Schilling 17%
Papelbon 0%
Wakefield 0%

Here are the chances for each number of Cy Young candidates from our starting pitchers:

3 1.9%
2 16.6%
1 44.3%
0 37.3%

That's a one-in-six chance that we'll have a one-two starting pitcher punch equivalent to what Manny and Papi have meant to our lineup. That's pretty amazing...having two such starting pitchers is very powerful when the postseason arrives, and such teams almost universally make the playoffs. Think of the late 90's Braves (Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine), the 2001 Diamondbacks (Johnson/Schilling), or the 2004 Astros (Clemens/Oswalt) for examples. All of those teams made it to the postseason, and the Diamondbacks and the Braves each tallied a World Series victory.

That assumes that Papelbon (a credible Cy Young candidate for most of last season) and Wakefield have zero chance of reaching that level, which is simply not true. Wakefield has had an ERA+ ranging from 100 to 157 the last six consecutive years--there's maybe a 1-2% chance that the atmosphere will favor his knuckleball enough over 30 starts that he'd be pushing 20 wins with an ERA below 3.50. Papelbon is a question mark, but he could easily be as good as (and similar to) Roger Clemens' recent seasons, pitching six near-perfect innings once every five days.

This is going to be an exciting season...let's get started! :silly:

Get me? Why? What I do? What I do? :( :blink:


:D

Please understand that when exciting good times are mentioned, it's not surprising that you might be the first individual to come to mind. ;)

My vote is for Matsuzaka. I look for him to dazzle in his first 10 starts and then come back to earth once the scouting reports catch up with him. My expectation is for 18W, a ROY and a top 5 finish in Cy voting.

:clap: Totaly agree re: Becket. As I said last year, if he would just STOP thinking, and let Tek doing his thinking until he really gets used to th American League. Mr. Becket, Sir, Do not ever shake Tek off, and you could very well be the 2007 Cy Young Award winner" :partyofone:

Amen to that!!!!!

I think Beckett's gonna have a good year, but I just have this sense that Dice-k's gonna be lights-out right out of the gate.

Good answer, though I'm now laughing hysterically. :rofl:

What else COULD you possibly be full of??!?!!
:unsure: :unsure:

On a less rigorous, but somewhat stat-based, projection, I've had similar results.

I voted for SChilling. Yea, Matsu will be good, but he'll also have to make some impotant adjustments (like learning NOT to pitch high).

Beckett should make some adjustments and go with Tek more otfen (although the fact that he didn't last year worries me about this year - will he think he now knows it all?).

But Schilling is an ace, a fighter, a grinder. This is his swan-song season. He will want to go out on a high note. I'l bet he's been training his ass off all winter for his one last season.

You know, this is a tough call, as every single guy in the rotation has the potential to win 16 games +. ;cheers:

Wow, another "Ugly American" comment about how DM needs to learn how not to pitch? :rolleyes: Please take that lightly Ohio.

The first thing I'll look for in this kid is how much tinkering the Red Sox staff does with him. From all reports the one thing this kid needs to do is stay with what works for him. And that means using six pitches in a variety of ways. Up, down and outside of the zones. He's been called a pitching genius. That's not to say he does not need to learn new hitters, but this belief that American hitters are some type of different creatures altogether who feast on mistakes up in the zone is ridiculous. We certainly are not talking about Josh Beckett in the middle of the year who felt the only pitch he had to offer Vernon Wells was a fastball up in the zone. That's a mistake. But when you can come at hitters with a variety of pitches and keep them guessing, you don't have to stay away from the top of the zone. You can get a lot of outs in the top of the zone. :thumbup:

Nice points. Beckett needed to realize that location matters, not so much up and down, but more side to side as you pointed out. He gave up a lot less long balls down the stretch but started walking a lot of guys (I'm afraid it was probably a little more than just biased umps JHB).

I also believe that Dice will be fine. And based on his professed love for Varitek, he might be a hard working student of the game. He'll know where to pitch and when I think.

Hmmmm...I don't think that I've yet posted at UotM my work with respect to Jermaine Van Buren that makes me 99% confident that umps were biased, have I?

I'm looking forward to it ... and the English translation to follow. ;) :o ;)
::ducking and running::

I personally hope the pitching staff lays off the "tinkering" and lets the kid be himself and find his own way to a large extent - they should be there to guide him, not "teach" him. There are obviously differences between the Japanese and American baseball leagues, but there is an element of mystery and surprise to Matsuzaka that I wouldn't want to see "improved" out of him. With a pedigree and experience such as Dice-K's, a certain amount of respect for his way should be accorded. He also seems to have the discipline and work ethic to figure his way out of a challenge. I can't wait to see how he uses 6 pitches routinely in a count - he'll be unpredictable and dynamic.

I obviously voted for Dice-K.

BTW...my brand spanking new #18 Matsuzaka shirt arrived today! WOOT!!! My doorman, a good natured and very funny Yankees fan, handed me the package, and when I saw what it was naturally I boastfully told him what it was - he acted like he had touched something diseased... Can't wait to wear it around the city!

True confessions ... I was at the mall shopping for other people and passed a rack of Red Sox shirts, noticed the number 18, resisted, and then turned around and bought one. :D

OK...who cast the anonymous vote for Jon Papelbon? :confused:

Dice! It will be a matter of two intercepting learning curves: Dice getting used to the new league, and the league getting used to Dice. My guess is: he wins the race :partyofone:

Hijack: Sensei, I love a conspiracy theory. What on earth would be the motivation for the umps to be so systematically biased? From MLB's perspective, the optimal outcome is to keep the Sox and MFYs as close as possible all season long, to maximize hype, hoopla and revenue. That would argue for strategic bias rather than continuous bias. From the perspective of the umps own self-interest... are they running a racket? And if so, why isn't Lucky paying them off (is he ignorant of the concept)? Continuing malicious effing-up with the system is also a good way to risk a scandal and the introduction of some sort of electronic umpiring. Not to mention that, for MLB, an umpire-rigging scandal must be the single most horrifying prospect possible. Screw asterisks on Bonds... imagine if ALL the outcomes of the last n-years are perceived as tainted!

Lacking QuesTec data, how can you prove systemic bias, accross the entire league? (not just the team you watch a lot of, and therefore are subject to confimation bias - unless the RS are the only team getting hit, in which case, did Henry insult the umpire's union or something?) Given that ALL fans of ALL teams are convinced they was robbed, we're going to need heavy duty data to make a case. New thread, perhaps?

Where....did...you....find....it???? :wallbang:

Go to a mall.. any mall.. they are everywhere.. Newbury comics has a gazillion of them, Olympia sports has a rack of them. I have a PT job at Solomon Pond Mall, and I see them everyday. I waited to see if I got one for my Bday, (which i didn't :thumbdown: ) so now I have to buy one for myself..

New thread started in Members' Area.

[/hijack]

I did a little number crunching on Beckett in Aug and Sep and found the following:

In Aug and Sep, Beckett was caught by Mirabelli 5 times, Javy Lopez 3 times, Ken Huckaby 2 times and Tek 1 time. Stats by Catcher:

Belli: 5 G, 32 IP, 12 ER, 2 HR, 3.38 ERA, 17:14 K:BB ratio, 1.25 WHIP
Javy: 3 G, 17.2 IP, 16 ER, 1 HR, 8.14 ERA, 13:13 K:BB, 1.81 WHIP
Huckaby: 2 G, 12.2 IP, 15 ER, 5 HR, 10.63 ERA, 11:1 K:BB, 1.57 WHIP
Tek: 1 G, 8 IP, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA, 5:0 K:BB, 0.75 WHIP

Basically, he got drilled when Huckaby or Lopez caught him and was very good to great when Tek or belli caught him. Huckaby's numbers look like he called for a lot fastballs over the plate. Lopez's numbers look like he was probably nibbling outside of the zone too much. If you remove the games caught by Huckaby and Lopez from his stats, his 2006 line looks like this:

15-7, 4.28 ERA, 174 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 134:60 K:BB

Not bad.