Here come the Rays.

Discuss.

WOW1 :woohoo: .Last nite i got up at 8.45 that was ok,but when i went for my laptop to join you guys,my oldest had stolen my laptop,Mrs Tracey went back to work on hers.That crime was bad enough but than in tracey fashion I watched the game, and remember the halos 9th,you know when they had no outs and 2 on I shut the game off in surrender.Let the pelting begin :rofl: :VBG:

Hey tracey, I was just worrying about you.
I have the same thing here, we only have one tv hooked up to the dish. So if the games on, and they've rented a movie or something, I'm on audio anyway.
It's all good Finally ordered my new laptop, it will be here for the World Series. :YAHOO:

i got an injection that knocked me into mars yesterday.i feel better finally today and this may finally be behind.now for the sox and rays.the sox appear to be fighting a team of destiny,with a healthy lowell and beckett there is little doubt that this team can beat destiny,without them im not sure.thankgod they did not go to the west coast win and have togo to tampa,this will be a really good series as both teams have a lot of ways to score runs

It would not surprise me to see this series go to 7 games, with the Sox ultimately winning 4-3.

It's going to be a stressul couple of weekends, I agree. This one has legendary battle written all over it. The teams fought hard (literally and figuratively) all year to get to this point. The Sox have been through some battles, so have the Rays. The Rays are loaded with young talent, so are the Sox. The new kids on the block have displaced the MFYs, but they still have to contend with the defending champs.

The rest helps the Sox more, as maybe Lowell feels good enough to make a contribution, maybe Beckett's oblique gets just enough better that he can be effective in 2 starts and pick up 1 win.

With the rotation, you could go:
Dice @TB (6 days)
Lester @TB (4 days)
Beckett (7 days)
Byrd
Lester (4 days)
Dice @TB (7 days)
Beckett @TB (5 days)

Dice and Beckett get a little extra rest and you get Lester at home.

My understanding is lowell is out for thisseries,but unless we can put out a decent and healthy 3rd starter i dont see how we win tis one,if we do,im with Thin we get it in seven as experience counts.

Rominer seems to think that Nuke is healthy. If so, then the pitching is fine, as we can go 4-5 deep in starters if need be.

I think we get this one in 6, maybe 5.

tbs.the herald,as awell as tim k at espn nelieve josh is still not right.

I might be wrong. I've only been saying that the things from that start that you were pointing to as signs of injury could just as easily be explained by other factors. I hope he's healthy and ready to dominate. I obviously don't really know one way or the other. Either way, he pitched well enough to at least give the Sox a chance to win Game 3. Hopefully, he can take another step forward from there.

The one thing the Rays have that the Angels clearly didn't once they lost Game 1 is confidence that they can beat the Red Sox. The Angels might have been confident after dominating the regular season series, and after winning 100 games – but they didn't sound confident once they lost. They kept playing, they didn't quit, but their play on the field and their postgame comments both say otherwise.

How do you break the Rays' confidence? All year long, we thought that an injury, or a losing streak, or a blowout loss was going to be the beginning of the end for a team playing over its head. Never happened. They always bounced back. They've still never played a do-or-die game, though. If the Sox jump out 2-0, do they panic? If the Sox are up 3-1, or 3-2, or it reaches Game 7, do they panic?

I don't know if breaking their spirit is an option. The key, I think, is going to be wearing down their bullpen. Things line up very nicely for them if their starters can go 6. Don't let the starters go 6. Make guys pitch multiple innings out of their pen. Make them throw pitches. Normally, you'd think that winning the first game is always a key to the series. Here, winning Game 1 might just be a bonus. If you keep it close, make them work, and get a good long look at those guys, it will pay dividends later on.

Their offense is good, not great. Their starting pitching is good, but not as good as Boston's (if Beckett is indeed healthy). Their bullpen is great – not only at holding leads, but at keeping them in games while they try to chip away at leads.

Get to their bullpen early in the series, and you might physically neutralize their biggest strength and advantage. If you're lucky, you might just get in someone's head along the way. Break one link in that bullpen chain, and things are looking up.

Sox in six.

Here's from MLB.com. I see no reason to believe Becket isn't healthy.:

Mull it over skip: Rotation yet to be set
Francona debating who would be best to take ball in Game 1
By Ian Browne / MLB.com

BOSTON -- Though this is the third time Terry Francona has been to the American League Championship Series in his five years as manager of the Red Sox, it's the first time he's had some real debate over how to line up his pitching rotation.
There was no question that Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez would come out of the gate in 2004 against the Yankees, and it was an equal no-brainer that Josh Beckett and Schilling would be the tone-setters vs. the Indians a year ago.


But as the Red Sox get ready for Game 1 against the Rays at Tropicana Field on Friday night, there are some interesting things for Francona to consider.

First of all, Jon Lester, who has emerged into the ace of the staff, can't open up because he fired seven scoreless innings in Monday night's AL Division Series clincher against the Angels.

Beckett could pitch Game 1 on the standard four days' rest, but that might not be as much of a no-brainer as it seems. Coming off a right oblique injury that pushed him back a few days against the Angels, Beckett wasn't particularly sharp in his Game 3 start, throwing 106 pitches over five innings and giving up nine hits and four runs.

"I thought he was good," Francona said of Beckett. "I thought he was a little frustrated. He wants to be Beckett in a situation where maybe it's a little hard to be. Maybe it's not fair. It had been two weeks [between outings]. I thought the Angels deserved a lot of the credit. They really grinded him out. He wasn't that bad. It wasn't the 96-mph velocity, but it was firm, there was some movement. There were a lot of pitches that were just off the plate they didn't swing at."

Francona also has the option of opening the series with Daisuke Matsuzaka, the 18-game winner who would be working on six days of rest. However, Matsuzaka labored through his Game 2 start against the Angels, throwing 108 pitches over five innings and giving up eight hits and three runs.

Then, there is knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who didn't pitch in the ALDS but could be in the cards for one of the first two games at Tropicana Field because of his career dominance (9-3, 2.86 ERA) under that roof.

However, Wakefield was pounded in his most recent start at the Trop, giving up six hits and six runs over 2 1/3 innings on Sept. 17.

As for Game 2, Lester, who could make that start on regular rest, would be the obvious choice. The left-hander didn't allow an earned run in 14 innings during the ALDS, getting the win in Game 1 and leaving with a 2-0 lead after seven innings in Game 4.

But there is this to consider: If the Red Sox hold Lester out until Game 3, they could pitch him at Fenway Park, where he's been nothing short of brilliant (11-1, 2.49 ERA) this season. If Lester took the ball in Game 3, it could also line him up for Game 7 if the series goes that far. The pitcher who starts Game 4 would also have enough rest to pitch Game 7, thanks to an off-day between Games 4 and 5.

So going with some combination of Beckett/Matsuzaka/Wakefield in the first two games would not qualify as a shock. Neither would it be for Lester to pitch Game 2, since he's been Boston's most consistent pitcher all year.

"It's going to take three quality starting pitchers, maybe a fourth, to get through the next round," said Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell. "We're fortunate now we can get Jon some rest here, but the fact that Josh got out and pitched last night is a huge boost for us, and Dice-K has been winning for us all season. We feel good about the starting pitching we've got for the next series."

Now it's just a matter of how it lines up. The Red Sox will likely unveil their plans on Wednesday during an afternoon press briefing at Fenway.

beckett may be the bottom line for us in this series

I'd feel better if we were healthier, but this is still going to be a helluva series. No way this doesn't go 7 games. I like a scenario that lets Lester pitch game 3 making him available for a game a game 6 or 7 clincher if you need it. I know if it's down to game 7, that's who I want pitching.

We'll definitely need a good start from Beckett in the first three games. Dice can pitch game 1.

So maybe Dice, Beckett, Lester... man, I don't know who I'd prefer to see in game 4. Wake or Byrd. Byrd was pretty great against the Sox and Yankees in the playoffs last year (only means so much, I know). Wake has long been a Ray killer, but his last start against them was pretty rough. Hmmm.... Don't know what I'd do.

Well, regardless, this is going to be a tough series. Rays are healthy, young and just terrific in all areas. Sox are the better team, but go in less than healthy. I've always felt experience plays a significant role in the playoffs (it was really visible for the Cards in 2006 -- remember how rattled the Tigers were?). If the Rays lose game one and get in a tough spot, feeling they "must win," we'll see how they respond. Sox have been there before. Rays haven't.

I hope we're so far ahead in one of the games that Gil Velazquez gets an at bat. He's your basic professional minor leaguer with 9 years of minor league ball and virtually no chance of making anybody's major league team. His name in the playoff record books would mean a lot to him and to a lot of career minor leaguers who help their organizations as total emergency backups and help their local teams draw fans and stay competitive as well as helping train their replacements. He's a veteran presence at Pawtucket.

For the rotation, there are so many possibilities that I'm going to trust Farrell and Tito to pick the right one ... but maybe it doesn't even matter that much. Dice, Beck, Jon, Wake sounds fine. Keep Byrd available for long/disaster relief.

As for the team v team stuff ... we have experience, they have confidence and I think it's a wash. Neither team will be rattled by anything and it will just come down to who plays better, who gets lucky, who's more determined.

There's no pressure on them; they've already exceeded all expectations and their season is an unqualified success today. Our guys just might be hungrier.

Sox in 7.

Can't wait!!!!!!!!

I hope we're that far ahead in every game. :raspberry: But you're right, it would be a very cool thing for Velasquez to appear in the box score. :thumbup:

What if Beckett is unavailible.

I think he's available but, Lester, Dice-K, Wake, Byrd. :rofl: You need the title "Official team worry wart"

FAB you are aboout a yeara and a half with your idea.Ib be very concerned with wake and or Byrd,but I think id choose Wake.

I'd pick Wake in a heartbeat, knowing his record in the Pineapple Dome.

Even if that record this year was 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in 3 starts?

17 hits, 8 walks, and only 7 K in 15 1/3 IP. The Rays stole 6 bases and hit 3 HR against him, hitting .279/.361/.525/.886

A lot of that (including all 3 HR) was the one bad start in September. But they've definitely made him work all season.

How can we tell if any given Wake stat is a function of his having a bad game - and his bad games can be bad on a whole other scale - or a function of a particular hitter or hitters being ones we should avoid if we had a choice?

Sample size favors his being good in TB, and his recent history being a SSS. But who knows how much stats mean with Wake?

I'd give him the ball almost anywhere and anytime that Lester and Beckett aren't available ... but in the Post Season the leash needs to be very, very short.

Tamps Bay paper: Bring on the Red Sox.

"...The Red Sox are that sneering gunfighter you see in Westerns who you know is destined to draw against John Wayne. Or that glowering boxer who feels no pain who is bound to fight Rocky Balboa. The Red Sox are final-reel villains, and as formidable as they are, it is fitting that they should be the final team standing between the Rays and the World Series."

But the large sample size is of Wakefield against a consistently bad team of free swingers. This is a completely different team with far more patience at the plate – 2nd in the AL only to the Red Sox in walks, after years of being middle or bottom of the pack.

Apart from the September shellacking, Wake's 2 starts against Tampa Bay were a decent 6 inning no decision and a very good 7 inning loss. But he gave up unearned runs in both – Tampa can run on him. He gave up 5 walks in the no decision. Those two starts were two of his 3 highest pitch-count outings of the season. They make him work.

Assuming everyone else is physically capable of pitching, the only reason to start Wakefield before Game 4 is his history of success in Tampa. i don't think that success necessarily translates with this Rays team. There's no one outing or stat that definitively proves that, but the three outings that he did have in Tampa, and my general impression of the Tampa lineup, suggest to me that he's just Tim Wakefield now, not "Tim Wakefield, God of the Trop."

I'd rather maximize what the Sox can get out of the top 3 - Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka. And I'd rather maximize it early. If you play it with too much of an eye to Game 7, you're going to get a Game 7. It's tempting to try to take advantage of Dice-K's road numbers, and Lester's Fenway numbers. But ultimately in a 2-3-2 format, both guys are pitching in both parks if it goes 7. To me, the only question is whether you go Beckett (normal rest) - Lester (normal rest) - Matsuzaka (extra rest), or Matsuzaka (extra rest) - Lester - Beckett (extra rest).

Depends on Beckett, I guess. If he's good to go on normal rest, he's my Game 1. That gives him Game 5, and a chance of being available for an inning or two in an emergency in Game 7. There's no way to squeeze 3 games out of Lester the way it's set up, no matter what. That would set Dice-K up to be the Game 7 starter, which might speed up the aging process and lead to a few heart-attacks. But the point is not to let it get that far in the first place.

Face it, Tracey, you're concerned with ANYone on the mound. :nono:

But I see that you've already picked your "fear du jour".... Beckett.

This is going to be a tough series, but I'm calling it Sox in 6, with a side order of gray hairs, chewed fingernails, and ulcers. :wink:

Sox in five

All that makes a lot more sense than simply looking and the W-L record vs TB. And maybe there are two W-L records - one against the Devil Rays and one against the Rays.

I'd still give him the ball, realistically it would be game 4, and if he's throwing knuckleballs for strikes, there's not a lot any team can do. They can't run if they can't get on base.

What worries me most at this point is that he'll have had over 2 weeks off by then.

Started in your six are you figuring a solid or good outing from Beckett?I cannot figure which of the other 2 Tito hands the ball to if Beckett is hurt.

Well they got that wrong.
The Red Sox are Mr. T, and they're gonna be teaching the fools some basic rules! I pity the fools.

I love this. The Sox are now the most hated and feared team in the game, the one that you don't want to face with it all on the line...they've become the Patriots w/Brady

...I could get used to that... :VBG:

Beckett Shmeckett! I'm calling it in 6, regardless of whether Beckett's 100% healthy or crippled with explosive diahrrea!

I would really caution you in getting too fixated on Beckett. Beckett is definitely an important part of the playoff equation, but he's by no means the only part. Now granted, his ALDS performance, IMO, didn't inspire much confidence, but I for one am willing to chalk it up to just rust and quite possibly one of those times when things just didn't come together for him....that happens to any pitcher. If Beckett can give us at least a modestly good performance and our offense steps up, this will be a non-issue.

Look at it this way, people. We beat TampaBay more often this season than we beat the Angels. OK, that's unscientfiic. And one can say "That was the regular season; now it's the playoffs". Certainly that argument was used to refute our regular season performance vs the Halos. Yes, it IS now the playoffs, and that's a good thing because.....

These two clubs are evenly matched. Look at how close to we came, so many times, to overtaking TB in the division. The teams are evenly matched in all areas except one: playoff experience. We own them there. I do envision a tough, knock-down, drag-out, nailbiter of a series, but I see the Sox ultimately prevailing, with their playoff experience, mindset, poise, etc., winning the day for us.

In 6 games, Lester and Beckett should get 2 starts each. That should equal 3 wins. Just need to come up with 1 more between Dice-K and Wake/Byrd. Not saying it will be easy, but the way Lester's throwing right now nobody's going to touch him.

I like the 6 call. Could be 5, could be 7, but 6 sounds about right.

Of course, the REAL pressing question is...do I post a Barry Manilow song parody before the series starts? It got us off to a good start in that last series vs TB! :raspberry: :rofl:

I posted this in another thread but I agree with Started, playoff experience and the Fenway Faithful give us some tremendous advantages. Post-season pressure can lead to defensive mistakes and offensive aggressiveness. Believe it or not, I think Torii Hunter said it best:

So even though they were better in the head to head games we played this season, the playoffs are different and Boston can handle it. LA can't. We'll see about the Rays. I'm betting they don't have any idea of the pressure they are in for. GO SOX!

My proposed LCS rotation (as posted on BDC)

This is a no brainer-

If Beckett is healthy, you go with him in Game 1 and Lester in Game 2. Beckett will be chomping at the bit for a shot to make up for his lackluster performance agains the Angels.

Coming home, you have Dice-K go in Game 3, Wake in Game 4. At that point, you have the top 3 guys ready to go for games 5-7. You could go with Beckett on regular rest in Game 5 or Lester with an extra day, Dice-K on Saturday in Game 6 on regular rest, and either Beckett or Lester in Game 7, depending on which one you used in Game 5. In either case, each would have had extra rest.

The scheduling for this series plays well into the Sox favor as it would, barring playing a desperation elimination game, allow Nuke, Lester, and Dice-K all to pitch 2x on normal rest, necessitating needing to go to Wake/Byrd only once, in which case the logical choice there is Wake, allowing Byrd to pitch long relief.

oh i'm used to it....living in Denver i can assure you that the Red Sox are the new, well, Raiders.....people here (besides the numerous ex-New Englanders) despise us.

i rather enjoy reminding baseball "fans" here that the Red Sox are still the defending World Champions and will remain so for another year.

Patriots. Celtics. Red Sox. Good times.

p.s. should the Bruins beat the Avalanche in the season opener it might be the end civility here.

These 2 are pretty even if you go by the reg season,i agree that the experience pushes the advantage to the sox,but if Beckett is not Beckett or we are putting in wake or Byrd does that not put the arguement back to even again,i realize this is simplistic,but it makes sense,you have to be impressed the way they really took apart the chi sox,i guess im saying this is going 7.I also agree the games are are gonna be knockout drag out affairs,brutal.Go SOx

The thing is, Dice is going to be a lot better at the Trop than Fenway.

This season, his Trop ERA is 1.80 in 2 games, only allowing a BA of .143.

I know, small sample size, but Dice has been a run better away from Fenway all year. His away ERA is 2.37 / at Fenway it is 3.34.

I know Tito is looking at that and I expect him to have Dice in game one or two to maximize those splits.

Well, if you do it that way, you could go with Lester in Games 3 and 6, but that means you're looking at Dice for Game 7. I don't see it that way.

isn't Dice-K unbeaten on the road? wouldn't a game 7 be on the road?

just say'n.